近年来,「K型经济」的概念主导了关于市场与经济的讨论,认为自疫情封锁以来,最富有的前10%家庭因金融资产繁荣而蓬勃发展,底层民众则受困于通膨。然而,联准会最新发布的2025年《消费者财务调查》(SCF)显示,虽然美国依然高度不平等,但自疫情以来不平等程度并未显著加剧,甚至在部分指标上有所下降。
在收入与财富方面,自2019年以来顶层族群的收入增长速度与底层相当甚至更慢,过去三年中低收入家庭的收入微幅增加,而高收入家庭反而出现下滑。在净资产衡量的财富上,过去12年最富有10%族群与其他群体的增长差距已缩小或消失;此外,前10%高收入者占总消费支出的比例约为28%,远低于近期估计的50%,显示整体复苏在增长率上更像是一个微向后倾的「E型」。
尽管过去十年多数美国家庭获得了实质收益,但仍存在三个隐忧。首先,底层25%家庭的平均净资产长期接近于零,许多低学历与少数族裔依然生活在财务边缘;其次,富裕阶层的财富增长依赖投资组合,中下阶层则仰赖房产增值,高利率若终结房价涨势将使贫富差距再次扩大;最后,利率上升推高了借贷成本,正导致最贫困美国人的债务违约率上升。
In recent years, the concept of the "K-shaped economy" has dominated public conversations about markets and the economy, arguing that since the pandemic shutdown, the richest top 10 percent of families have prospered from booming financial assets while the bottom half languished under inflation. However, the Federal Reserve's newly released 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) reveals that while the US remains highly unequal, inequality has hardly increased since the pandemic and has even fallen on some metrics.
Regarding income and wealth, income growth at the top has been the same or slower than at the bottom since 2019, with lower-tier families seeing modest income increases over the past three years while upper-tier families experienced declines. In terms of net worth, the growth gap between the richest tenth and most other cohorts has closed or disappeared over the past 12 years; moreover, the top 10 percent of earners account for about 28 percent of all consumer spending—far below recent estimates of 50 percent—indicating a recovery shaped more like a slightly leaning "E" in terms of growth rates.
Although American families across much of the income and wealth spectrum have enjoyed real gains over the past decade, three counterbalancing risks remain. First, the bottom 25 percent of the wealth spectrum has maintained an average net worth near zero, leaving many less-educated and minority households on a financial razor's edge; second, because upper-half wealth gains are driven by investment portfolios while lower tiers rely on home appreciation, higher interest rates could widen the wealth gap again if house price growth stalls; finally, rising interest rates are driving up debt servicing costs, leading to increasing delinquencies among the poorest Americans.