2025年中国实现约1,160亿美元贸易顺差与756亿美元经常账户盈余，显示制造业出口动能强劲，但国内消费持续疲弱。JPMorgan称中国经济“借用海外增长”，指出内需疲软与结构性失衡加剧，出口导向模式的可持续性受质疑。11月数据显示，汽车出口同比激增近49%，而零售销售下降16.2%，汽车销售额同比下滑8.3%。豪华品牌尤为受挫，Mercedes注册量下降32%，BMW下滑19%，大众化品牌同样低迷，反映此前补贴依赖与高基数影响。整体零售在年末未见改善，国内需求疲态与外需繁荣形成鲜明对比。
JPMorgan与Morgan Stanley警告，中国制造业全球份额从当前约15%预计至2030年升至16.5%，但“规模优势或转为负担”。发达国家与新兴经济体（如巴西、印度、墨西哥）正上调关税或计划多元化供应链以削弱对中依赖。中国虽通过转向非美市场维持出口增长，却引发与其他新兴出口国的竞争加剧。分析师称，2026年中美欧贸易摩擦或升级，北方盟友亦探讨应对措施。中国亟需从制造出口转向国内服务业，降低“以邻为壑”印象，以避免外部反弹。
资本外流反映信心流失。最新估算显示，单月隐含资本净流出约802亿美元；尽管外汇储备达3.35万亿美元且鼓励人民币国际化，北京仍维持资本管制防止汇率升值。年轻群体失业与悲观情绪加深，企业与家庭倾向将资金转出。专家认为中国须从1990年代的“制造驱动”模式转型，培育内需、创新与服务增长，否则其“经济巨人”地位将成为战略负担。
China ended 2025 with an estimated $116 billion trade surplus and $75.6 billion current-account surplus, underscoring powerful export strength but weak domestic demand. JPMorgan described China as “borrowing growth from abroad,” citing worsening internal imbalances that threaten sustainability. In November, car exports surged nearly 49% year over year, while retail sales fell 16.2% and auto sales by value dropped 8.3%. Premium brands such as Mercedes and BMW saw registration declines of 32% and 19% respectively, with mass-market models also weak after subsidy withdrawal. Retail momentum stagnated through year-end, highlighting a split between global demand resilience and domestic stagnation.
JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley analysts warn that China’s global manufacturing share, now about 15%, could reach 16.5% by 2030—an advantage turning into liability. Developed economies and emerging peers including Brazil, India, and Mexico are raising tariffs and diversifying supply chains. Though China has rerouted exports toward non-US markets, competition with other emerging exporters has intensified. Analysts expect 2026 to bring further trade friction with the US and Europe. Strategically, Beijing must pivot from export-led manufacturing toward services to reduce “beggar-thy-neighbor” perceptions and restore global balance.
Capital flight signals eroding domestic confidence. Preliminary estimates show implied net outflows of about $80.2 billion in a single month. Despite $3.35 trillion in reserves and efforts to internationalize the renminbi, Beijing maintains capital controls to avoid currency appreciation. Rising youth unemployment and pessimism drive households and firms to move funds abroad. Economists argue China must transition from its 1990s manufacturing paradigm toward domestic innovation and service-based growth—or risk its “economic Goliath” status becoming a strategic burden.