研究显示，新冠疫情在多数富裕国家造成了持续性的死亡率上升，而非仅仅“提前”了一部分原本即将发生的死亡。研究人员分析了34个国家在2015年至2024年间超过3.5亿例死亡数据，发现疫情后的死亡人数通常未能回落到足以抵消疫情高峰期的超额死亡水平。所谓“死亡位移”效应只在少数国家出现，且占比很小，动摇了疫情影响会随时间自然修复的假设。

在34个国家中，仅希腊、拉脱维亚和波兰显示出明确的死亡位移证据，而且该效应仅抵消了疫情期间超额死亡的10%至21%，主要集中在85岁及以上人群。美国到2024年总体死亡率已回到疫情前趋势，但这意味着稳定而非反弹，并未出现明显的“补偿性”死亡下降。相反，法国、意大利、英国、西班牙和立陶宛等多个欧洲国家在2024年仍录得高于预期的死亡率。

研究还表明，疫情应对策略具有长期后果。那些在疫情期间死亡率较高的国家，往往在随后几年整体表现更差，否定了“先损失、后恢复”的观点。超额死亡主要集中在老年人群，但并非只影响最虚弱者。虽然新西兰和卢森堡在整个研究期内将死亡率控制在或低于预期水平，但对大多数富裕国家而言，疫情对人口健康造成的冲击是真实且持久的，而不仅仅是时间上的重新分配。

A study shows that Covid-19 caused a lasting rise in mortality across most wealthy countries, rather than merely pulling forward deaths that would have occurred soon anyway. Researchers analyzed more than 350 million deaths from 2015 to 2024 across 34 countries and found that post-pandemic fatalities generally did not fall enough to offset excess deaths during Covid’s peak. The so-called mortality displacement effect appeared in only a few cases and accounted for a small share of losses, undermining the idea that the impact would naturally self-correct.

Only three countries—Greece, Latvia, and Poland—showed clear evidence of mortality displacement, offsetting just 10% to 21% of pandemic-era excess deaths, largely among people aged 85 and older. In the US, overall mortality returned to its pre-pandemic trajectory by 2024, indicating stabilization rather than a rebound, with little sign that earlier losses were later compensated. Several European countries, including France, Italy, the UK, Spain, and Lithuania, were still recording higher-than-expected death rates in 2024.

The findings suggest that pandemic response strategies have long-term consequences. Countries with higher Covid-era death rates generally fared worse even years later, contradicting the view that early losses would be balanced over time. Excess deaths were concentrated among older adults but were not limited to those who were already near death. While New Zealand and Luxembourg kept mortality at or below expected levels throughout the period, for most rich nations the study indicates the damage from Covid was real and enduring, not merely a shift in timing.