经济风险同样巨大：美国约4%的GDP、约1.2兆美元，来自使用稀土的产业；若中国切断供应，部分企业可能停工。当前替代供应仍极有限，Pentagon 已与澳洲 Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. 签约，但 Lynas 是中国以外唯一能精炼重稀土的厂商，且2026年第一季仅生产 8 吨 dysprosium 与 terbium 合计，而业界估计年需求达数千吨。日本即使努力去风险化，对中国稀土依赖仍约76%，重稀土直到去年前几乎是接近100%。
成本与供应链结构让中国仍握有优势。中国拥有最多相关专利、数千名分离专家，而美国少于100人；美国矿业相关科系毕业生数量仅为中国的十五分之一。市场方面，2010年代初 neodymium-praseodymium oxide 价格一度升破每公斤200美元，Lynas 当时约只能卖到每公斤29美元，近一年又涨回逾每公斤100美元。虽然去年中国境外宣布的投资达63亿美元，2026年第一季再增28亿美元，但Benchmark仍预期到2031年中国与 Myanmar 将掌握近80%的 dysprosium 与 terbium 供应，显示真正脱钩至少还需要十年左右。
President Donald Trump has spent the past year trying to break America’s dependence on rare earths, yet the effort still lags far behind his promise last November that independence would come in just 18 months. Bloomberg cites projections from three critical-mineral consultancies showing that lighter rare earths may loosen by the end of the decade, but the heavy rare earths vital for high-performance magnets and military uses are unlikely to see Chinese dominance fade before at least the mid-2030s. For dysprosium and terbium, supply outside China is still projected to cover less than one-fifth of demand by 2035.
The economic exposure is large: about 4% of US GDP, or roughly $1.2 trillion, comes from industries using rare earths, and some firms could shut down if China stopped shipments. Alternatives remain scarce. The Pentagon has signed a deal with Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., but Lynas is still the only refiner of heavy rare earths outside China, and in Q1 2026 it produced only 8 tons combined of dysprosium and terbium versus annual demand measured in thousands of tons. Japan still relies on China for about 76% of its rare earth supply; for heavy rare earths, dependence was nearly 100% until last year.
China’s advantage is reinforced by cost and industrial depth. It holds the most relevant patents, has thousands of separation experts, while the US has fewer than 100; US mining-program graduates are about one-fifteenth of China’s. Price history shows why competition is hard: neodymium-praseodymium oxide topped $200 per kilogram in the early 2010s, while Lynas recalls selling near $29 per kilogram then, and global prices have risen back above $100 per kilogram over the past year. Although projects outside China attracted $6.3 billion in announced investment last year and another $2.8 billion in Q1 2026, Benchmark still expects China and Myanmar to control nearly 80% of dysprosium and terbium supply in 2031, implying the supply gap will persist for roughly another decade.