先进半导体通常一年内就被取代，但 Nvidia 的 Hopper 末代加速器 H200 因美国政策而「延寿」。美国总统川普在 Truth Social 表示将允许 Nvidia 对中国客户出售 H200，逆转先前让该公司在中国市场存在感「几乎归零」的限制。

即便 H200 曾支撑全球相当大一部分 AI 算力、并在该世代为 Nvidia 带来「数百亿美元」新增营收，到 Hopper 问世 13 个季度后，H200 等产品在最近一季仅贡献资料中心营收 510 亿美元中的 20 亿美元；大多数营收已转向后继 Blackwell，下一代 Rubin 也预计明年推出。这也是美方认为技术领先与迭代路线图足以支撑对中放行的部分理由。

Nvidia 仍需说服北京：先前中国官方曾指示企业避开较弱的 H20，且在三届美国政府出口管制的不确定性下，中国正推动采用本土替代。虽然华为等产品与 Nvidia 的差距有争论，但少有人主张能匹敌 Blackwell；同时「核准客户」与商务部发照速度仍不明。司法部另披露一宗走私案：两名中国公民被拘留、休士顿公司老板已认罪，涉案至少 1.6 亿美元 Nvidia 晶片（含 H200）以改标伪装方式试图输中。

Advanced chips are usually replaced within a year, but Nvidia’s Hopper-era H200 has had an unusually long spotlight because of U.S. export policy. President Donald Trump said the U.S. will allow Nvidia to sell H200s to customers in China, reversing restrictions that had cut the company’s presence in that market to “practically nothing.”

Despite powering a large share of global AI infrastructure and helping generate “tens of billions” in new revenue for Nvidia, Hopper is now late-cycle. Thirteen quarters after the family debuted, H200 and related parts contributed only $2 billion of Nvidia’s $51 billion data-center sales in the most recent quarter; most revenue has shifted to the successor Blackwell line, with Rubin expected next year.

Nvidia still must win over Beijing, which previously steered firms away from the less-capable H20 and is promoting local substitutes after clampdowns under three U.S. administrations. Chinese rivals are debated, but few claim they match Blackwell; licensing details like “approved customers” and timing remain unclear. The DOJ also highlighted demand via an alleged smuggling scheme: two Chinese nationals detained, a Houston company owner pleaded guilty, and at least $160 million of Nvidia chips—including H200—were relabeled to evade controls.