美国科技巨头正以创纪录规模加码人工智能投资。Meta Platforms计划今年将资本支出翻倍至最高1350亿美元，作为争夺下一轮技术主导权的核心押注。特斯拉则将年度支出提高至200亿美元，几乎是华尔街预期的两倍，并额外向马斯克的xAI初创公司投入20亿美元，同时评估自建半导体工厂的必要性。Meta业绩超预期后股价开盘一度上涨11%，显示市场在短期内认可其广告现金流对巨额AI投资的支撑能力。
但投资者情绪高度分化。微软季度支出高于预期、Azure云业务仅勉强达标，股价遭遇近六年来最大跌幅；SAP披露的云服务订单积压不及预期，股价创2020年以来最大跌幅。这表明，在估值、股价和需求周期均处于“前所未有”水平之际，任何增长放缓迹象都可能迅速引发抛售。分析人士指出，若AI需求或基础设施扩张降温，高支出将显著放大下行风险。
巨额投入已在全球供应链引发连锁反应。为AI加速器和数据中心提供内存芯片的三星电子和SK海力士利润成倍增长，ASML亦大幅超出预期。然而，AI加速器长期供不应求的同时，更基础的存储芯片也出现短缺隐忧。马斯克警告若不自建晶圆厂将“撞上芯片墙”。在亚洲，竞争焦点集中于下一代高带宽内存HBM4，预计将与英伟达即将推出的Rubin处理器集成；三星计划2月开始出货HBM4，力图追赶SK海力士。
US tech giants are unleashing record AI spending. Meta Platforms plans to double capital expenditures to as much as $135 billion this year, an all-in bid for leadership in the next technological wave. Tesla will lift annual spending to $20 billion—nearly double Wall Street estimates—add $2 billion for Elon Musk’s xAI startup, and consider building its own semiconductor factory. After beating expectations, Meta’s shares jumped as much as 11% at the open, suggesting near-term confidence in ad cash flows funding the AI splurge.
Investor sentiment, however, is fragile. Microsoft reported higher-than-expected spending while barely meeting Azure cloud expectations, triggering its biggest share drop in nearly six years. SAP disclosed weaker-than-expected cloud backlog, sending its stock to the steepest fall since 2020. With valuations, prices, and demand cycles described as unprecedented, any sign of slowing growth can quickly spark selloffs, amplifying downside risk from elevated investment levels.
The spending boom is rippling through global supply chains. Memory suppliers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix posted profits growing several-fold, and ASML smashed estimates. Yet shortages are widening: beyond AI accelerators, concerns are rising about basic memory constraints. Musk warned of a looming “chip wall” without building a fab. In Asia, the race centers on next-generation HBM4 memory slated for integration with Nvidia’s upcoming Rubin processors; Samsung plans February shipments to catch up with SK Hynix.