Fort Washington Investment Advisors的高级投资组合经理Dan Carter指出，油价上涨通常会抬升通胀预期，使美联储降息空间收窄。原油本周几乎上涨20%。尽管把全部情景合并后市场仍偏向某种形式的降息，交易员对“至少出现实质性降息”信心明显减弱；近几日期权资金流持续买入对“美联储宽松不足”风险的对冲仓位。
利率互换市场也反映出对美联储立场更少偏鸽派：截至上周末，市场对全年累计降息约60个基点（约0.60个百分点）的定价，已降到当前的约35个基点（约0.35个百分点）。这种预期下调推动美债出现抛售，收益率在近几周抬升至高位。与二月相比，二月的强劲反弹曾由AI潜在扰动担忧及私营信贷市场裂缝引发的避险需求驱动。
As of Wednesday, March 6, 2026 (2:28 AM GMT+8), pricing data show a clearer shift toward expecting the Federal Reserve not to cut rates this year. Atlanta Fed data indicate traders now price a 25% chance that the Fed will keep policy rates within the current range through December, up from 17% on the prior Friday (the last trading day before the Iran conflict began). In the scenario ladder, no-cut is now the single most likely outcome, followed by a 24% probability of one 25 bps (0.25 percentage-point) cut and a 12% probability of two 25 bps cuts (0.50 percentage points total). There is also a 16% chance priced for rate hikes, up from 8% on Friday. These probabilities are derived from SOFR futures options linked to the Fed policy rate.
Dan Carter of Fort Washington Investment Advisors said that when oil rises, inflation usually moves higher, reducing the odds of Fed easing. Crude oil rose nearly 20% this week. Although the total probability mass still leans toward some cuts, the repricing shows weakening conviction that policy easing will materialize. Recent options flows show persistent demand for hedges against the possibility of less Fed easing than previously expected.
The interest-rate swap market confirms the shift: implied cuts to year-end are now about 35 basis points (0.35 percentage points), down from about 60 bps (0.60 percentage points) at the end of last week. That recalibration has helped trigger a Treasury selloff, lifting yields to multi-week highs. The move marks a reversal from February, when the rally in Treasuries had been supported by safe-haven demand linked to AI disruption risk and cracks in the private credit market.