欧洲交易热度反映此轮转向：私募股权竞逐 Volkswagen AG 的重型柴油引擎部门；英国航太供应商 Senior Plc 出现三方竞购；Advent 与 Cinven 讨论出售 TK Elevator，潜在估值约 €25 billion（约 $29 billion）。同时，Triton Partners、Warburg Pincus 与 Brookfield 等正募集新基金，投向工业科技、资料中心与先前较不受青睐的国防资产。
相对地，软体投资与退出承压：Bloomberg 数据显示，过去 5 年私募股权在软体领域投资逾 $1 trillion，约为同期工业投资的 2 倍；Bain Capital 的 Robin Marshall 估计，收购基金所持资产约 40% 暴露于软体。2026 年初新 AI 工具（如 Anthropic PBC）引发对 SaaS 资产估值与减记的担忧，部分退出案（EQT AB 的 Thinkproject、TA Associates 的 Unit4、Hg 延后 Visma IPO）受阻；第一季例行按市值评价可能在 3 月底显现压力。信贷市场亦出现轮动：Dedalus 暂停 €1.3 billion 杠杆贷款，而 Ramudden Global 约 €1.2 billion 贷款因需求强劲而定价更紧，投资人并关注包含 Continental AG 工业部门 ContiTech 在内的约 $2.5 billion 大型收购融资。
In early 2026, private capital is rapidly reprioritizing as AI threatens software business models, rotating toward the “HALO” trade in heavy, low-obsolescence assets (from ship engines to conveyor belts). Blackstone’s Jonathan Gray says investors want tangible “terra firma” across medical supplies, energy, real estate, and industrials; Brookfield’s Anuj Ranjan cites two catalysts: post-pandemic supply-chain security and AI-driven changes in how goods are made.
European deal flow highlights the shift: buyers are competing for Volkswagen AG’s heavy diesel engine unit; a three-way contest is forming for UK aerospace supplier Senior Plc; and Advent and Cinven are discussing a sale of TK Elevator at a potential €25 billion (about $29 billion) valuation. In parallel, Triton Partners, Warburg Pincus, and Brookfield are raising new funds aimed at industrial technologies, data centers, and the once-unloved defense sector.
The rotation is pressuring software exposure and exits: Bloomberg data show private equity has invested more than $1 trillion in software over the past 5 years—roughly 2× what it spent on industrials—and Bain Capital’s Robin Marshall estimates about 40% of buyout assets are exposed to software. New AI tools in early 2026 (including from Anthropic PBC) have raised fears of writedowns and delayed sales, with stalled processes such as EQT AB’s Thinkproject, TA Associates’ Unit4, and Hg’s postponed Visma IPO; mark-to-market work for Q1 may surface impacts by late March. Credit markets show the same tilt: Dedalus paused a €1.3 billion leveraged loan, while a roughly €1.2 billion loan for Ramudden Global priced tighter on strong demand, and investors are watching jumbo financings including about $2.5 billion backing takeovers such as Continental AG’s ContiTech unit.