乙醇在几分钟内穿过口腔等黏膜并越过血脑屏障，而人类异常的解毒能力可追溯到约1000万年前获得的一次突变，其背景是热带森林崩塌、约90%的类人猿灭绝之后。落果发酵通常度数很低（对巴拿马过熟野生棕榈果的一项研究未发现酒精含量高于5%的样本），但在近1万年前的贾湖遗址，陶罐残留物已显示有人为酿造，而轻度醉意可能把群体凝聚力扩展到约100人以上。

如今代价十分惨烈：全球每年因酒精滥用死亡近180万人，而世界卫生组织在2023年1月表示不存在安全饮酒量，并称酒精是“有毒的、具有精神活性且会导致依赖的物质”，属于第1类致癌物。约5.4亿因乙醛分解受损的人群风险更高；即便在代谢能力正常者中，也有估算指出若2.5万人连续一年每天喝一杯，将额外增加1起严重健康事件，而人体每小时只能代谢约8克酒精，摄入过量时血液酒精及副产物会累积。

在富裕国家需求正在走弱：OECD人均纯酒精消费量从2011年的8.9升降至2021年的8.6升，而全球前20大市场的销量在疫情与2024年之间又下降了2%。行业正转向替代品——NoLo饮品仍仅占含酒精饮品销量的1.4%，但其全球市场在2024年为260亿美元，预计到2034年将达470亿美元——并同步押注“功能性”饮料以及更长周期的候选物，如Alcarelle和与GLP‑1相关的降低渴求。

[Command] /bin/bash -lc "python - <<'PY' text = \"\"\"Ethanol crosses membranes and the blood–brain barrier within minutes, and humans’ unusual detox capacity traces to a mutation acquired about 10 million years ago, after tropical-forest collapse when roughly 90% of apes went extinct. Fermented fallen fruit is typically weak (a study of overripe Panamanian palm fruit found nothing above 5% alcohol), yet by nearly 10,000 years ago Jiahu jars show intentional brewing, and mild intoxication may scale cohesion beyond about 100-member groups.

Today the cost is stark: alcohol abuse causes nearly 1.8 million deaths per year worldwide, and in January 2023 WHO said no amount is safe, calling alcohol a toxic psychoactive, dependence‑producing Group 1 carcinogen. Risk is amplified for about 540 million people with impaired acetaldehyde breakdown; even among typical metabolisers one estimate implies that if 25,000 people drink one daily for a year there is one extra serious event, while the body clears only about 8 grams per hour so excess intake accumulates.

Demand is slipping in rich countries: OECD per‑capita consumption fell from 8.9 litres of pure alcohol in 2011 to 8.6 in 2021, and volumes in the top 20 markets dropped a further 2% between the pandemic and 2024. The industry is pivoting to substitutes—NoLo drinks remain just 1.4% of alcoholic sales but the market was "'$26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $47 billion by 2034—alongside “functional” drinks and longer‑horizon candidates like Alcarelle and GLP‑1‑linked reduced craving.""" words = text.replace('"'\\n',' ').split() print(len(words)) PY"

Source: How humankind’s 10m-year love affair with booze might end

Subtitle: Civilisation was built on alcohol. Technology may sober us up

Dateline: 12月 18, 2025 05:44 上午