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年,一场 derecho(长程强风雷暴)袭击爱荷华州 Palo 的杜安阿诺德核电厂:每小时 130 英里阵风切断全部 6 条外部输电线,触发自动紧急停机;反应炉

2020 年,一场 derecho(长程强风雷暴)袭击爱荷华州 Palo 的杜安阿诺德核电厂:每小时 130 英里阵风切断全部 6 条外部输电线,触发自动紧急停机;反应炉停堆后仍需数小时排热降温,事后发现 12 座冷却塔被吹垮。

核管会(NRC)风险分析初估该事件反应炉堆芯受损机率约为 1/1,000;在 2015–2024 年间,这是全美仅有的 2 起「重要前兆事件」之一(次高风险等级),且同期没有「重大前兆事件」(最高等级)。2021 年 3 月的最终分析略降堆芯受损机率,但指出 derecho 期间「站内全黑」(station blackout)风险特别高;在停机后约 10 小时,两部柴油备援发电机的冷却系统因碎屑堵塞出现压力,操作员绕过滤网维持运转。

电厂停用至今,但在 NextEra 与 Google 的购电与出资协议下,计划于 2029 年重启:Google 将购买主要电力输出 25 年,并宣称可向区域电网提供超过 600 MW 的「全天候」核能;Google 在距电厂约 12 英里的 Cedar Rapids 周边扩建资料中心。极端天气趋势同时升高:爱荷华州 2024 年创纪录 155 次龙卷风(高于 2021 年的 146 次),且 1980–2024 年平均每年接近 2 起、近 5 年平均每年 5.4 起的「十亿美元灾害」显示损失事件频率上升;业者拟增设备援(例如第 3 部柴油机)并以更高抗风标准重建冷却塔。

In 2020, a derecho struck Iowa’s Duane Arnold nuclear plant: 130‑mph winds severed all six off‑site power lines, triggering an automatic emergency shutdown; the reactor cooled and vented heat for hours, and operators later found that 12 cooling towers had collapsed.

The NRC’s initial risk analysis estimated about a 1-in-1,000 chance of core damage during the storm; it was one of only two “important precursors” to a severe US accident from 2015–2024 (second-highest risk category), with zero “significant precursors” (highest category). A final March 2021 analysis slightly lowered the core-damage probability but flagged an especially high station-blackout risk; about 10 hours into cooldown, debris clogged the cooling path for two diesel generators, and operators bypassed a strainer to keep a generator operable.

Duane Arnold has been dormant since 2020, but NextEra and Google are pursuing a 2029 restart: Google will help fund recommissioning and buy most output for 25 years, marketed as more than 600 MW of always-on nuclear power; Google’s nearby campus is about 12 miles away. Weather risk signals are worsening—155 Iowa tornadoes in 2024 (vs 146 in 2021) and NOAA’s $1B+ disaster history suggests frequency rising from just under 2 per year (1980–2024) to 5.4 per year over the latest five years—so planned upgrades emphasize added backup power (e.g., a third diesel) and higher wind-resistant cooling towers.

2025-12-14 (Sunday) · 0d7792e85a3d5e655c3641c709ee77c5b8514eca