霍尔木兹海峡通常承载近五分之一的全球油运，但在美国和以色列对伊朗连续两个月空袭、伊朗报复性袭击后，商船通行仍几乎为零。布伦特油价虽然已升至每桶120美元以上，低于先前担忧的150—200美元，但三月基准判断在数量级上已失准：2022年俄罗斯供应中断约3m桶/日（约占全球供给3%）只是其中一小部分，而霍尔木兹完全封锁每天大约会移走其五倍的体量，而且大约3%的年世界产量已被先发性地耗损。

按3—4月口径，原本通过海峡的原油与成品油约为18.3m桶/日；在剔除残留过闸与阿联酋、沙特两条绕行管道后，缺口仍约13m桶/日。再加上海湾外供应增长2m桶/日并扣除今年预期的海湾增产1.3m桶/日后，过去两个月短缺约为12.3m桶/日，已超过全球消费的10%，而可用备用产能几乎无法快速替代（美国页岩油在3—6个月内仅能增产30万—70万桶/日，俄罗斯或许约30万桶/日但受限）。

缺口目前主要靠库存和需求收缩支撑：专家估计4月原油及油品需求比预测低3m—5m桶/日，新加坡和欧洲柴油/航空煤油与原油利差已从15—20美元涨到50—80美元。莫根士丹利称自3月初起有3m桶/日海上库存缓冲，IEA另动用应急储备400m桶（已放出100m，5—6月或再75m），而剩余差额将迫使商业库存续补6m—8m桶/日并远高于历史；亚洲库存已降13%至5.45亿桶，亚洲炼厂减产3.5m桶/日（12%，六月可能翻倍），柴油运价一周内从300涨到600美元/桶，美国汽油已到4.20美元/加仑且再持续3—4周或突破5美元/加仑，最终无论何种开通都将通过更高油价和真实缺供实现配给。

The Strait of Hormuz usually carries nearly one-fifth of global oil, yet after two months of US-Israel strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation, tanker traffic remains near zero. Brent is above $120 a barrel, below earlier fears of $150–$200, but the scale assumptions are off: the 2022 Russian disruption was about 3m b/d (roughly 3% of supply), while a full Hormuz closure removes roughly five times that each day and about 3% of annual world output is already effectively at risk.

For March–April, about 18.3m b/d of crude and products normally passed through the Strait; even after accounting for residual flow and the UAE-Saudi bypass pipelines, the gap is still around 13m b/d. Adding 2m b/d of non-Gulf growth but subtracting 1.3m b/d of Gulf output expected this year gives a two-month shortfall of about 12.3m b/d, above 10% of global consumption, with very limited replacement from spare capacity (US shale can add only 300,000–700,000 b/d within 3–6 months, and Russia maybe 300,000 b/d but constrained).

The gap is being covered by stocks and demand compression: experts estimate demand in April was 3m–5m b/d below forecast, while the crude-to-diesel/jet spread has widened from $15–20 to $50–80. Morgan Stanley notes a 3m b/d floating buffer since early March and the IEA has released 400m barrels from emergency stocks (100m already delivered, another 75m possible in May–June), but remaining deficits would then force commercial inventories to cover 6m–8m b/d—well above history; Asian inventories have already fallen 13% to 545m barrels, Asian refinery throughput is down 3.5m b/d (12%, likely doubling by June), diesel has jumped from $300 to $600 per barrel in a week, US gasoline is already $4.20/gal and could exceed $5 in another 3–4 weeks, so rationing is likely through either higher prices or direct shortages.

Source: Nothing in the tank

Dateline: The Economist May 2nd 2026