同时，中国的成长模式正加剧失衡。中国制造业生产全球约三分之一的商品，超过美国、德国、日本与南韩总和，但去年利润率仅约 4.5%，不到美国水准的一半。房地产下跌进一步削弱需求：中国家庭约 70% 财富绑定住房，比例逾美国的两倍，而疫情以来房地产估值已下跌超过 20%。地方政府曾约有 40% 收入依赖土地出让，但自 2021 年以来该数字已减半，压缩了支付社会服务的能力。
人工智慧使这些压力更尖锐。中国虽在电力供应与 AI 应用上具优势，且 2025 年抗议活动仍较前一年增加 44%，第四季逾半数由工人主导，但机器人无法纳税、消费或支撑房市，因此难以修补需求缺口。政府已承认 AI 对就业的压力「不可避免」，而 civil servant 考试报考人数去年已是 10 年前的两倍。文章的核心判断是：若 AI 触发大规模裁员，Xi Jinping 可能不得不以更慷慨的福利扩张，换取对 14 亿人口的社会稳定。
The article argues that China may be forced to build a larger welfare state, long resisted by Xi Jinping, as artificial intelligence and deflation intensify pressure on growth. Xi warned in 2021 that “welfarism beyond the means of the state” was unsustainable, and the numbers reflect that stance: China’s post-pandemic fiscal response equaled only 4.8% of GDP, far below the US at 25.5%, while social-service spending as a share of GDP is roughly half the OECD average. In 2022, only about 40 million people, roughly 3% of the population, received direct cash assistance, showing how tightly cash transfers remain constrained.
At the same time, China’s growth model is worsening imbalances. China’s manufacturing sector produces about one-third of global goods, more than the US, Germany, Japan, and South Korea combined, yet profit margins last year were only about 4.5%, less than half US levels. Property losses further weaken demand: around 70% of Chinese household wealth is tied to housing, more than double the US share, while real-estate valuations have fallen by more than 20% since the pandemic. Local governments once relied on land sales for about 40% of revenue, but that figure has been cut in half since 2021, reducing their capacity to fund social services.
AI sharpens these pressures. Although China has advantages in power supply and practical AI deployment, and protest activity in 2025 still rose 44% from a year earlier with more than half of fourth-quarter actions led by workers, robots do not pay taxes, consume, or support the property market, so they cannot close the demand gap. Officials have already called AI-related job pressure “inevitable,” while the number of applicants for the civil-service exam last year was double the level of a decade earlier. The article’s core conclusion is that if AI triggers mass layoffs, Xi may have to trade a more generous welfare expansion for social stability across 1.4 billion people.