世界正处于一段「永久危机」的时期，这是由四大历史性冲击所引发的：大国冲击、中国冲击、人工智慧冲击以及美国冲击。这些冲击正剧烈动摇全球格局，将世界从后冷战时代的稳定推向一个混乱且可能漫长的新旧时代交替过渡期。

大国冲突主要体现在修正主义国家对美国影响力的挑战，特别是美中之间争夺霸权的系统性冲突。同时，中国的工业产能过剩对全球经济造成巨大破坏，威胁发展中国家并导致先进国家面临去工业化与政治激进化。

人工智慧的突破带来了经济潜力，但也颠覆了军事与社会结构，甚至带来生存风险。此外，美国自身的财政与政治问题使其全球领导地位受到质疑，加剧了全球的不稳定性，未来几十年内世界恐难以恢复平静。

The world is experiencing a period of "perma-crisis" driven by four historic shocks: a great-power shock, a China shock, an AI shock, and a USA shock. These shocks are severely convulsing the global landscape, pushing the world from the post-Cold War stability into a messy and potentially protracted transition to a new era.

The great-power conflict is evident as revisionist states challenge US influence, highlighted by a systemic clash for hegemony between the US and China. Concurrently, China's industrial overcapacity is severely disrupting the global economy, threatening developing nations and causing deindustrialization and political radicalization in advanced countries.

Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence offer economic potential but also revolutionize military dynamics and societal structures, posing potential existential risks. Furthermore, America's own fiscal and political dysfunctions cast doubt on its global leadership, amplifying structural instability and suggesting that global tranquility may remain elusive for decades.