Amazon表示将其履约与配送基础设施开放给非Amazon客户,从3M到Lands’ End,并以统一方案提供货运、配送、履约和包裹邮寄服务。此前Amazon依赖既有承运网络成长,同时也建立自有网路,最终成为UPS最大的客户之一。去年Amazon承接美国已出货23.9 billion个包裹中的超过四分之一,ShipMatrix资料显示FedEx与UPS合计运输约三分之一。Nate Skiver指出,Amazon多年来已逐步向非Amazon卖家提供部分供应链能力;现在推出端到端整合服务,可能重塑美国物流市场。Morgan Stanley分析师Ravi Shanker认为这是转折点,空运与包裹承运商受击最重,卡车、铁路、海运与仓储也面临风险。
第三方物流企业如GXO和CH Robinson被认为特别脆弱;Old Dominion专注的零担(LTL)业务则相对更有缓冲。LTL通常处理1,000 pounds(约453.6 kg)以上货件,依赖仓储分拣据点网路,Amazon短期内未必能快速复制。FedEx则计划于6月剥离FedEx Freight。此次抛售发生之际,S&P 500运输指数已接近历史高位,FedEx此前全年上涨36%,周一回落至约24%。Ariel Rosa与Mark Hackett都认为,估值偏高与恐慌性抛售推动了市场过度反应,行业或将进入观望阶段。
US transportation shares sold off sharply on Monday after Amazon.com Inc. announced expanded logistics services that make it a direct rival to parcel carriers and air-freight operators. FedEx shares fell 9.1%, its worst one-day drop in more than a year, while UPS dropped more than 10%. Forward Air and GXO also posted double-digit losses, and Old Dominion Freight Line and other truckers fell around 7%. Joe Gilbert called it a “shot across the bow” to the transport market, while Alan Amling warned Amazon could also move into high-margin niches, including healthcare, that UPS and FedEx had focused on.
Amazon said it is opening its fulfillment and delivery infrastructure to non-Amazon customers, from companies such as 3M to Lands’ End, offering freight, distribution, fulfillment, and parcel shipping as a unified service. Amazon had grown by relying on incumbent carriers while also building its own network, eventually becoming UPS’s largest customer. Last year, Amazon delivered more than one quarter of the 23.9 billion U.S. parcels, and ShipMatrix data show FedEx and UPS together handled about one-third. Nate Skiver noted Amazon has moved in this direction for years by offering parts of its supply-chain capability to non-Amazon sellers, but the end-to-end integrated offer could reshape the U.S. logistics market. Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker called it a watershed moment, with air freight and parcel carriers most exposed and truckers, rail, ocean, and warehouse firms also at risk.
Third-party logistics firms such as GXO and CH Robinson were seen as especially vulnerable, while Old Dominion’s less-than-truckload business may be relatively more protected. LTL operations usually handle shipments of 1,000 pounds (453.6 kg) or more and rely on a building and sorting network that Amazon may not quickly replicate. FedEx is also planning to spin off FedEx Freight in June. The selloff came as the S&P 500 Transportation Index was near all-time highs, and FedEx had been up 36% year-to-date before falling back to about 24% on Monday. Ariel Rosa and Mark Hackett both said high valuations and indiscriminate risk-off selling likely drove an overreaction, and the sector may enter a wait-and-see phase.