在这篇报导中，Aarian Marshall、Michelle Wiese Bockmann 与 Samir Madani 都在关注霍尔木兹海峡的监测难题。文章指出，在伊朗与美国、以色列冲突进入一个半月后，Bockmann（Windward AI 的高阶海事情报分析师、从业30年）观察到一个持续上升的现象：船舶“消失”。虽然在此海峡中，影子船队长期以来会关闭 AIS（Automatic Identification System）讯号，但目前其规模放大到异常程度；上个月该区「超过半数」船舶讯号曾被干扰。Windward AI 目前记录到波斯湾有超过800艘艘船舶在运作，显示异常活动密度高且影响持续扩大。这里每月正常情况下会有数百艘船舶通过，约20%全球石油消费量依赖此航道。

Bockmann 表示，团队会长期密切追踪500到600艘油轮，并以重复出现的航迹反向识别“失踪”船舶；她形容这像是盯著“不听话的孩子”。对海事保险、油商与金融机构而言，这类船舶可关乎风险定价与供应链合规；一旦航道受扰，后果不只财务冲击，也可能导致相撞或损位，进一步提高油污外溢的灾害概率。她提到，在伊朗情境下，达到「100%可见性」基本不可能，因为这些船舶会动用多种欺瞒手法。

追踪方法逐步转向多源融合：Bockmann 结合电光学影像、合成孔径雷达、RF讯号、AIS讯号、船舶登记资料，甚至船上行动装置的人体讯号，以还原船舶真实航迹；卫星影像即使长期昂贵，近来成本已下降。Madani 指出，美国卫星商在4月宣布缩减该区高解析度影像后，他们改以旧资料源再优化并购买其他西方来源，以维持可用资料。值得注意的是，约三分之二霍尔木兹船队既有制裁违规纪录；在上周三，Windward AI 记录到148起「暗箱行为事件」（关闭讯标），显示短期数据不仅持续扩大，也更具组织化特征。

In this report, Aarian Marshall, Michelle Wiese Bockmann, and Samir Madani all focus on a widening monitoring problem in the Strait of Hormuz. The article says that after about a month and a half of war involving Iran, the US, and Israel, Bockmann—a senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward AI with 30 years in the field—has observed a persistent increase in “disappearing” ships. Although shadow fleets have long turned off AIS transponder signals, the scale has become unusual; at one point last month, well over half the vessels in the strait had their signals jammed. Windward AI now tracks more than 800 vessels in the Persian Gulf, indicating dense and sustained irregular activity. Under normal conditions, hundreds of ships pass monthly and roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum consumption moves through this waterway.

Bockmann says her team continuously monitors a core cohort of 500 to 600 tankers and identifies vessels by recurring tracks when a ship disappears; she describes it as spotting a “recalcitrant child.” For marine insurers, oil traders, and financial firms, visibility on these ships affects risk pricing and compliance exposure; disruption in the strait can create immediate operational and commercial harm, not only long-term macro effects. A ship with disabled location transmission may collide or run aground, greatly increasing the chance of catastrophic spills. She also says that with Iran-linked traffic, “100 percent visibility is not possible,” because these operators use nearly every known deceptive shipping practice.

Tracking has shifted to multi-source fusion. Bockmann combines electro-optical imagery, synthetic-aperture radar, RF signals, AIS-linked data, registry records, and even onboard human-presence signals from mobile devices to reconstruct true movements; satellite imagery costs have been falling despite historically high prices. After US satellite firms in April limited high-resolution coverage in the region, Madani said his firm reworked legacy sources and purchased other Western feeds. Roughly two-thirds of tanker traffic in the Strait has sanction-violation history, and on Wednesday Windward AI recorded 148 “dark activity events” when ships turned off transponders, showing short-term activity is not only high but increasingly organized.