2025年美国经济与市场主要由人工智能热潮支撑，但泡沫特征显著：股市估值、杠杆与持仓比例均过高，美国已成为唯一一个家庭在股票中持有财富比例超过房地产的主要经济体。历史上，1929年美国、1989年日本与2015年中国的泡沫均因货币紧缩破裂。若美联储失去信誉或资金流入放缓、长期利率飙升，AI泡沫可能被刺破。国内通胀顽固：食品价格五年上涨30%，低收入家庭三分之一将95%以上收入用于基本开销。美国财政赤字预计在2026年再度超过GDP的6%，美联储已连续55个月未达2%通胀目标。全球范围内，日本10年期国债收益率上升最显著，债市对高负债发达经济体的反应趋紧。

2025年美国吸引外资约1.7万亿美元，足以弥补经常账户赤字，但美元占全球股市权重从66%降至64%，美股相对地位削弱。国际市场相对美国折价约三分之一，企业盈利增长现已相当甚至高于美国，新兴经济体人均GDP增速快于美国的比例在十年内由50%升至近90%。质量股（高ROE、低杠杆）在2025年录得史上最差相对表现，但过去30年平均年超额收益2.5%，累计回报为2600%对1200%；工业、金融与可选消费板块中估值偏低的优质股被视为2026年反弹潜力点。

中国方面，出口与AI支撑市场表象但国内增长疲软。若无出口拉动，名义GDP增速仅约3%，远低于官方约4%。中国总债务已超GDP的300%，广义财政赤字超过11%，缺乏刺激空间。与此同时，全球对“中国倾销”调查自2023年以来翻倍至120起，日韩、加拿大、墨西哥及泰国纷纷加征关税，欧盟拟推“欧洲制造”规则。其他趋势包括拉美市场在右派领导下平均上涨超50%，美国与欧盟净移民较峰值暴跌85%与50%，全球酒精消费降至历史低点，酒企股票十年下跌35%。

In 2025, the U.S. economy and markets were sustained largely by AI mania, showing bubble characteristics—overvaluation, high leverage, and extreme stock ownership. The U.S. is now the only major nation where households hold more wealth in equities than property. Historically, bubbles in 1929 (U.S.), 1989 (Japan), and 2015 (China) all burst amid monetary tightening. If the Fed loses credibility or inflows slow, higher long-term rates could pop the AI bubble. Inflation remains sticky: groceries are 30% more expensive than five years ago, and one-third of low-income Americans spend over 95% of income on necessities. The U.S. budget deficit is projected to exceed 6% of GDP in 2026, with the Fed missing its 2% inflation target for 55 consecutive months. Bond markets are tightening, with Japan’s 10-year yield rising most sharply among peers.

Foreign inflows of about $1.7 trillion in 2025 financed the entire U.S. current account deficit, yet America’s global stock share fell from 66% to 64%. International markets trade at a one-third discount to the U.S. but now match or surpass it in earnings growth. The share of emerging economies with faster per capita GDP growth than the U.S. jumped from 50% to nearly 90% in a decade. Quality stocks—high ROE, low debt—had their worst relative year in 2025 but have historically outperformed by 2.5% annually, compounding to 2,600% versus 1,200%. Undervalued quality names in industrials, financials, and discretionary sectors are poised for a 2026 rebound.

In China, exports and AI mask domestic weakness. Without export strength, nominal GDP growth would be about 3%, below the official 4%. Total debt exceeds 300% of GDP, and the augmented fiscal deficit is above 11%, limiting stimulus capacity. Global trade probes into “China dumping” have doubled since 2023 to 120, prompting tariffs from Japan, Canada, Mexico, and Thailand, with the EU mulling “Made in Europe” rules. Other trends include Latin American markets up over 50% under right-leaning governments, U.S. and EU net immigration plunging 85% and 50%, and alcohol consumption at record lows, with alcohol stocks down 35% over the decade.