在那条参考路径上，世界经济增长预计为2026年的3.1%，2027年的3.2%，低于2024-25年的3.4%，并远低于2000-19年的平均3.7%。当年预计通胀为4.4%。在较不利的 Iran 情境下，增长降至2.5%，通胀升至5.4%；在严重情境下，增长约2%，通胀5.8%。IMF 警告下行风险占主导。冲击负担集中在冲突区域、商品进口国以及财政脆弱国家，其他地区目前仅有限溢出。
但文章同时强调韧性：在战争爆发前，全球经济表现比预期更强，AI 推动的科技出口以及贸易网路对美中贸易冲击的快速重定向，削弱了 Trump 关税的拖累。US protectionism 尚未全球化。Viktor Orbán 在匈牙利的选举失败，显示若选举相对自由，将贪腐与文化战争揉合的反自由威权政治可被选民否决。许多社会仍偏好合作与和平贸易，而非再度走向民族主义与军事好战，所以全球秩序虽受压力，但尚未崩溃。
Donald Trump’s moves around the Strait of Hormuz this week — warning Iran, then a failed two-week ceasefire, then a broader naval blockade announcement from Trump and JD Vance diplomacy in Islamabad — made policy itself seem unpredictable. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook says this is not just noise but a major source of uncertainty: geopolitical shocks, volatile US trade turns, the Ukraine war, and ruptures in the western alliance are piling onto already fragile markets. Its reference forecast assumes disruption from the Iran war fades by mid-2026, which is a constrained optimism, not a certainty baseline.
On that reference path, global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, below 3.4% in 2024-25 and well below the 2000-19 average of 3.7%. Inflation is still projected at 4.4% this year. Under an adverse Iran scenario, growth falls to 2.5% and inflation rises to 5.4%; under a severe scenario, growth around 2% and inflation 5.8%. The IMF warns downside risks dominate. The burden is concentrated in the conflict region, commodity importers, and fiscally fragile states, while other areas have so far seen limited spillover.
Yet the article also highlights resilience: before the war, the world economy was stronger than expected, with AI-driven tech exports and a rapid rerouting of trade to cushion Trump tariffs and the US-China trade shock. US protectionism has not yet globalized. The defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary’s election shows that corrupt-and-culture-war-style illiberal politics can be rejected by voters where elections are relatively free. Many societies still prefer cooperation and peaceful trade to renewed nationalism and militarism, so the global order, though strained, has not collapsed.