巴西在2025年经历动荡：前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗因策划政变入狱，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普错误称其为“冤案”并对巴西商品加征惩罚性关税，但左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦顶住压力并促使特朗普大体退让，因此卢拉在10月连任前景强劲。自1985年军政府结束以来的现代民主时代得以延续，但选民仍缺少更好的选择。

卢拉现年80岁，若再执政4年并完成一届任期，将在退休前达到85岁，而高龄使认知与健康风险成为核心变量。2024年12月他在浴室滑倒撞头后为止血接受脑部手术；他仅比在2024年同一竞选周期节点上的乔·拜登年轻1岁，即使状态更好也难以消除统计性风险。

右派阵营的接班之争同样被数字标注：博索纳罗虽在服27年刑期仍有不少支持者，并推举长子弗拉维奥替他参选。圣保罗州保守派州长塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯现年50岁，在民调中对阵卢拉略占优势于弗拉维奥；文章认为2026年需要一次更真正的竞争，让新鲜且可行的候选人对决。

Brazil had a tumultuous 2025: ex-president Jair Bolsonaro was jailed for plotting a coup, U.S. president Donald Trump falsely called it a stitch-up and imposed punitive tariffs, but left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stood firm and pushed Trump largely to back down, leaving Lula well placed to win re-election in October. Brazil’s modern democratic era dates from 1985, and it survived, but voters still lack better choices.

Lula is 80, and if he serves another 4-year term he would be 85 before retiring, making age-related cognitive and health risk a central variable. In December 2024 he needed brain surgery after slipping in the bathroom and hitting his head; he is only 1 year younger than Joe Biden was at the equivalent point in the 2024 U.S. election cycle.

On the right, the succession fight is also defined by numbers: Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence yet retains significant support and has tapped his eldest son Flávio to run. São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas is 50 and polls slightly better against Lula than Flávio does; the argument is that 2026 needs a genuine contest between fresh, viable candidates.

Source: Brazil’s President Lula should not run again

Subtitle: As Joe Biden showed, candidates over 80 carry huge risks

Dateline: 12月 31, 2025 02:45 上午