在经历了2010年代的迅猛扩张后，全球植物基乳品替代品市场正显现出明显的增长颓势。市场调研机构Circana的统计数据显示，过去一年美国植物奶的总销量下滑了5.4%，其中销量最高的杏仁奶销量大跌7.9%；在截至今年6月的一年中，英国植物奶销量缩水2.5%，而在法国、意大利、荷兰与西班牙等欧洲主要经济体，其增长势头也显著放缓。相反，在经历长年下滑后，传统牛奶的销量正在逆势回升，消费者在通胀压力下普遍认为真牛奶在经济支出和营养健康层面更具实际性价比。

促使消费者重新拥抱传统牛奶的核心推手在于价格变动与对“超加工食品”（UPFs）的普遍担忧。尽管以瑞典品牌燕麦芒（Oatly）为代表的企业宣称其燕麦奶的碳足迹仅为牛奶的三分之一，但随着2023年原奶价格大幅回落，注重支出的家庭迅速回流。与此同时，公众对配料表的审视日益严苛，植物奶中广泛添加的食品胶、植物油、糖分和人造香精引发了消费警惕。尽管全脂牛奶含有更多饱和脂肪，但植物奶的含糖量往往更高，且牛奶的天然蛋白质含量达到燕麦奶的3至4倍；欧洲最大乳业合作社爱氏晨曦（Arla）旗下以夸克奶酪（quark）和冰岛酸奶（skyr）为代表的高蛋白乳制品销售收入自2024年以来录得每年25%的高速增长。

面对传统乳业的强烈反扑，植物奶生产商正全力通过营养强化与口味创新开辟生路。达能旗下品牌Alpro通过添加钙、蛋白质、碘与维生素进行产品升级，其在北美推出的“Silk Protein”大豆奶和酸奶主打含糖量比常规牛奶低50%，初创品牌MALK则在包装上高调标榜“不含食品胶”。此外，模仿牛奶口感的伪装产品因缺乏特色而大面积溃败，迫使厂商转向特色口味战略，例如Oatly自2025年推出的抹茶与爆米花风味以及Alpro的肉桂卷风味大受年轻人欢迎。同时，由开心果、碧根果和大麦制成的新兴替代品在社交网络上引发热潮，但行业分析显示，这些新兴品类实质上只是在残酷蚕食燕麦与杏仁奶等传统替代品的存量份额，难以真正撼动传统奶业的基石地位。

Following explosive mainstream adoption throughout the 2010s, the global market for plant-based milk alternatives is experiencing a notable contraction. According to market-research firm Circana, total sales volumes of plant milks in the United States retreated by 5.4% over the past year, led by a 7.9% plunge in almond milk, the category’s primary revenue driver. British retail volumes similarly dropped by 2.5% in the twelve months to June, alongside decelerating growth curves across France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. Conversely, traditional dairy milk is staging a volume recovery after protracted historical declines, as inflation-weary shoppers perceive conventional dairy as delivering superior economic affordability and untainted nutritional density.

This consumer reversal is driven by shifting price differentials alongside mounting scientific and public scrutiny of ultra-processed foods (UPFs). Although Swedish pioneer Oatly historically highlighted that oat milk generates merely one-third of the environmental impact of cows’ milk, the sharp decline in baseline dairy prices throughout 2023 incentivized cost-conscious shoppers to abandon premiums. Furthermore, vigilant consumers reading nutritional labels increasingly reject emulsifiers, seed oils, industrial gums, and refined flavorings. While whole cows' milk contains higher saturated fat, plant formulations frequently conceal excessive added sugars and yield inferior macro-nutrients, with cows’ milk providing three to four times the protein concentration of oat milk; reflecting this dietary preference, high-protein lines like skyr and quark at European dairy co-operative Arla expanded revenues by 25% annually since 2024.

In response, alternative-milk conglomerates are pivoting toward functional fortification and sensory novelty to protect their margins. Danone's plant subsidiary Alpro is heavily fortifying beverages with calcium, iodine, protein, and vitamins, while its North American Silk Protein line touts 50% less sugar than conventional dairy, alongside independent entrants like MALK promoting clean-label, gum-free formulations. Because artificial formulations mimicking dairy flavor have widely failed in the market, brands are pursuing radical indulgence: Oatly has capitalized on younger demographics with popcorn and matcha blends—its top-selling flavored innovation since 2025—while Alpro scales seasonal confectionery tastes. However, while social-analytics platform Tastewise charts surging viral interest in niche alternatives derived from pistachios, pecans, and barley, these exotic grains predominantly cannibalize legacy almond and oat milk market share rather than dethroning traditional dairy.

Source: Alternatives to milk are losing moomentum

Subtitle: Consumers are switching back to normal dairy

Dateline: Sep 17th 2026\n