美国正从“移民国家”部分转向“移出国家”，而且速度已具统计警讯。最新分析称，美国外流人数达到空前水平；仅去年就至少有 180,000 名美国公民离开。Gallup 在 2008 年衰退期发现，约 1/10 美国人想永久离开本国，如今升至 1/5；在 15 至 44 岁女性中，这一比例高达 40%。同时，放弃美国国籍的申请也显著上升，表明“离开美国”正从边缘选择转向更广泛倾向。
净迁移结构也在恶化。2025 年，迁往德国和爱尔兰的美国人多于迁往美国的德国人与爱尔兰人。文章警告，去年美国离境人数可能自大萧条以来首次超过入境人数；并且在这个国家 250 年历史中，美国今年可能首次出现人口下降。相关经济影响已开始显现：一项研究发现，净迁移下降在去年最多拉低经济增长 0.3%，且今年还将进一步拖累增长。
劳动力与政策数据共同指向结构性风险。2026 年 2 月就业报告比预期疲弱，显示就业减少 92,000 个岗位，文中将部分原因归于驱逐政策压缩了建筑、制造与农业等行业的劳动力供给。整体统计趋势是三重叠加：本国公民外流增加、新移民减少、总人口增长转弱甚至转负。若这一组合持续，结果将是需求受抑、创新放缓、年轻劳动者负担上升，以及美国对全球人才的吸引力继续削弱。
The US is shifting from a “nation of immigrants” toward a partial nation of emigrants, and the pace now carries statistical warning signs. A recent analysis says US emigration has reached unprecedented levels; last year alone, at least 180,000 American citizens left. Gallup found during the 2008 recession that about 1 in 10 Americans wanted to leave permanently; that figure is now 1 in 5, and among women aged 15 to 44 it reaches 40%. Requests to renounce US citizenship have also risen sharply, indicating that leaving America is becoming a broader tendency rather than a marginal choice.
The net migration balance is also deteriorating. In 2025, more Americans moved to Germany and Ireland than Germans and Irish moved to the US. The article warns that last year may have been the first time since the Great Depression that more people left the US than entered it; moreover, in the country’s 250-year history, this year may be the first with an outright population decline. Economic effects are already visible: one study found that lower net migration cut growth by up to 0.3% last year, with further drag expected this year.
Labor and policy data point to a structural risk. The weaker-than-expected February 2026 employment report showed a decline of 92,000 jobs, which the article partly attributes to deportation policy reducing labor supply in construction, manufacturing, and agriculture. The overall statistical trend is a three-part overlap: rising citizen outflow, falling newcomer inflow, and weakening or negative population growth. If sustained, this combination implies softer demand, slower innovation, heavier burdens on younger workers, and further erosion of US attractiveness to global talent.