日本对中国最新出口管制的反应预计将保持谨慎。北京禁止向日本出口具有军民两用用途的物项，并暗示可能加强稀土限制，同时宣布对一种日本芯片材料展开调查，凸显日本供应链的结构性弱点。中国在关键矿产加工领域占据主导地位，而日本汽车制造商在电动车生产中高度依赖中国来源的投入品，使任何对等报复都可能放大国内经济压力。
日本仍保有有限但明确的经济杠杆。日本是中国第二大出口市场，约占中国出口总额的4%，同时也是第三大进口来源国，占中国进口的6.3%，其中约52%为机械和电子设备。更关键的是，日本控制着约90%的先进光刻胶及部分半导体封装材料市场，这些对中国实现芯片自给至关重要。若日本限制相关出口，尤其在与美国和荷兰协调下，可能对中国产生实质性战略冲击，但也几乎必然引发报复。
在稀土领域，日本自2010年中日争端导致供应骤降后已着手多元化，支持Lynas Rare Earths等非中国供应源，并通过回收和库存缓冲风险。当前形势下，日本更可能联合美国及其他伙伴施压。日本是七国集团核心成员，可借助多边机制放大议题影响力，同时避免升级冲突。整体策略仍以降温为主，通过外交与协调争取缓解，而非迅速走向全面经济对抗。
Japan’s response to China’s latest export controls is expected to remain cautious. Beijing has banned exports of dual-use items to Japan for military purposes, signaled possible tighter rare-earth curbs, and launched a probe into a Japanese chipmaking material, highlighting structural weaknesses in Japan’s supply chains. China dominates critical-mineral processing, while Japanese automakers rely heavily on Chinese inputs for electric vehicles, meaning tit-for-tat retaliation could amplify domestic economic strain.
Japan nevertheless retains limited but specific economic leverage. It is China’s second-largest export market, accounting for about 4% of total Chinese exports, and the third-largest source of imports at 6.3%, with roughly 52% consisting of machinery and electronic equipment. More significantly, Japan controls around 90% of the market for advanced photoresists and certain semiconductor packaging materials crucial to China’s chip self-sufficiency goals. Restricting these exports, especially in coordination with the US and the Netherlands, could inflict strategic pain, though retaliation from Beijing would be likely.
On rare earths, Japan has reduced vulnerability since a 2010 dispute cut supplies, backing alternatives such as Lynas Rare Earths, recycling, and stockpiles. The current approach favors coordination with the US and other partners rather than unilateral action. As a core G-7 member, Japan can elevate concerns multilaterally while avoiding escalation. Overall, Tokyo’s strategy emphasizes de-escalation, diplomacy, and collective pressure over rapid economic confrontation.