文中对 doom loop 的定义，是商业地产与其他税基下滑后，迫使城市加税或削减支出，进而赶走居民与企业，最后让财政缺口再度扩大。这一循环曾因疫情期间与之后的大量联邦援助而被延后数年，但 New York、Chicago 等城市近期的预算压力与更大的未来赤字预测，说明风险仍在。Van Nieuwerburgh 仍称其为「slow-moving train wreck」，而 Gupta、Mittal 则同意风险存在，只是对严重程度看法不同。
区域差异很大：North Carolina 的 Raleigh 都会区有23.5%的就业人口主要在家工作，居全美第二；Charlotte 与 Durham-Chapel Hill 也进入 WFH 前15名。2026年第一季 Charlotte 与 Raleigh/Durham 的办公空置率分别为24.2%与22.3%，都高于全美平均20.2%，但 North Carolina 自2019年以来人口估计增加828,311人，且自2021年起新核准的多户住宅单位年增70%。相较之下，New York City 的 WFH 比例约为 Raleigh 的一半，Midtown Manhattan 空置率为18.3%，较2023年下降5个百分点，但 NYC 自2019年人口减少240,122人，且透过较稳定的估值折现率把办公地产实质税负拉高约一倍。
The paper on the post-pandemic “urban doom loop,” finally published in February in the American Economic Review, still supports its main claim: remote work caused a large, lasting decline in downtown office values. MSCI Real Capital Analytics repeat-sales indexes show US central business district office prices stopped falling last year, have barely recovered since, and remain almost 50% below their pre-pandemic level.
The doom loop is a negative spiral in which falling commercial-property and other tax revenue forces tax hikes or spending cuts, which drive away people and firms and widen the shortfall again. Federal aid delayed this risk for several years, but recent budget stress in New York and elsewhere, plus projections of larger deficits ahead, show that the cycle can still reappear. Van Nieuwerburgh calls it a “slow-moving train wreck,” while Gupta and Mittal agree the risk persists.
The regional numbers show sharp differences. In metropolitan Raleigh, 23.5% of employed people work primarily from home, second highest in the US; Charlotte and Durham-Chapel Hill are also in the top 15. Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham had first-quarter 2026 office vacancy rates of 24.2% and 22.3%, versus a national average of 20.2%, yet North Carolina has added an estimated 828,311 people since 2019 and has seen 70% more new multifamily units permitted annually since 2021. New York City has only about half Raleigh’s WFH share, Midtown vacancy is 18.3%, and the city’s population is down 240,122 since 2019, even as its office-property tax burden has effectively doubled.