AI 模型在 2020–2025 年实际被利用的 405 份智能合约上重建攻击手法，并在 2025 年 3 月知识截止后仍能复现价值 460 万美元的历史性漏洞利用；在 2,849 份无已知漏洞的新合约上，GPT-5 与 Sonnet 4.5 发现两项零日漏洞，总价值 3,694 美元，其中 GPT-5 的 API 成本为 3,476 美元，呈现接近盈亏平衡的“有效前沿”。研究指出，2025 年超过一半的链上攻击原本可由现有 AI 自主完成，并展示真实案例中价值约 1,000 美元的费用池被攻击者抢先提取。链上弱监督、匿名开发者与结构性可组合性使技术性攻击呈指数级可扩张。

Strategy（前 MicroStrategy）在其 Bitcoin 财政部模式中曾持有 601,550 枚 Bitcoin（峰值市值 714 亿美元），市值约 1,270 亿美元、企业价值约 1,390 亿美元，即约 2 倍 NAV。随着溢价压缩至 1.15 倍，其增发购币策略失效，而高杠杆结构仍在：公司持有 78 亿美元高息优先股，票息 8%–10.75%，另有 82 亿美元债务，季度支付数亿美元。Bitcoin 自高点回落 30% 后虽无追缴机制，但现金流压力上升，促使公司以出售股票方式建立 14.4 亿美元 USD 储备，目标覆盖 21 个月股息支出。杠杆 ETF（MSTX、MSTU、MSTP）今年跌幅超过 80%，累计流失 15 亿美元资产。

结构性金融趋势呈现系统性杠杆放大与套利脆弱点。大型对冲基金在回购市场的平均发型接近零，使其可实现极高杠杆；理论上负发型可导致无限杠杆，实务中反映的是标的稀缺性定价。预测市场亦出现操纵风险：一笔 140 万美元规模的地缘政治合约因第三方地图在关键时刻遭未授权修改而触发错误结算，随后又被修正，显示监管在价格决议数据源上存在结构性盲点。

AI models reconstructed attacks on 405 smart contracts exploited from 2020–2025 and generated $4.6 million in viable exploits even for post–March 2025 vulnerabilities; against 2,849 newly deployed contracts with no known flaws, GPT-5 and Sonnet 4.5 uncovered two zero-days worth $3,694, with GPT-5 incurring $3,476 in API cost, landing on a near-break-even efficient frontier. Researchers estimate that more than half of 2025’s human-executed blockchain exploits could have been autonomously performed by current agents, illustrated by a live case in which roughly $1,000 in fees was drained shortly after AI discovery. Structural anonymity and composability make on-chain exploitability scale exponentially.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) once held 601,550 Bitcoins (peak value $71.4 billion), with a $127 billion equity valuation and $139 billion enterprise value, implying roughly 2× NAV. As its premium collapsed to 1.15×, equity-financed Bitcoin accumulation ceased to be accretive while leverage remained: the firm carries $7.8 billion of preferred stock with 8%–10.75% coupons and $8.2 billion of debt, requiring several hundred million dollars in quarterly payments. After a >30% Bitcoin drawdown strained cash flows, Strategy funded a $1.44 billion USD reserve—covering 21 months of dividends—by issuing stock at NAV. Leveraged Strategy ETFs (MSTX, MSTU, MSTP) have fallen more than 80% year-to-date, erasing $1.5 billion in assets.

Systemic leverage conditions are tightening. Major hedge funds face near-zero repo haircuts, enabling extraordinary leverage; negative haircuts reflect collateral scarcity rather than funding demand. Prediction markets show manipulation risk: a $1.4 million geopolitical contract settled on a map updated via an unauthorized edit later reversed, exposing regulatory blind spots in external data dependencies.