辉达对中国销售「H二百」人工智慧晶片因美国国安审查而停滞；在唐纳·川普于约近两个月前同意放行出口后，最终许可仍未核发。由于不确定能否拿到执照及其附带条件，中国客户暂不下单；供应链原先按「极高」需求扩产，后续部分关键零组件供应商已暂停生产，反映交易落地进度被拖慢。
关键条件以量化约束为核心：美方可抽成销售额的二成五，且要求出货量的一半必须供应美国客户；另需由设在美国的第三方测试实验室做强制检测，并配套最终用途申报与审查。虽商务部门已完成分析，但跨部门审议中，国务部主张加严限制，以降低晶片被用于削弱美国国安的风险，核心焦点是中方企业能否保证不让晶片服务于中国军方、国防与情报体系。
市场与替代路径的数量讯号同时存在：黄仁勋曾称中国市场可达每年五百亿美元，但目前需求被「许可不确定性」抑制。该晶片虽属先进，仍较辉达最新「布莱克威尔」平台落后一代；北京方面对协议持审慎态度，讨论仅对少数科技公司开放有限采购，且仍待细则与美方执照结果。中方企业不得将合规晶片运往境外资料中心，限制其全球布局；阿里巴巴、字节跳动等既有以境外第三方资料中心租用算力的模式将难以被自建方案取代，企业因此准备备援方案。超微在同一协议下的「米三二五叉」晶片也仍在等待许可。
Nvidia’s sales of its H200 AI chips to China are stalled by a US national security review, with final export licences still not issued even though Donald Trump agreed to allow exports nearly two months ago. Because it is unclear whether licences will be granted and what conditions they will carry, Chinese customers are holding off on placing orders. Nvidia’s supply chain had ramped for “very high” demand, but some key component suppliers have since paused production, showing the deal’s implementation is being delayed.
The prospective licence terms are heavily quantitative: the US would take a 25% cut of sales, and half of all shipments would have to go to US customers. Licences would also require mandatory testing by third‑party labs based in the US, plus end‑use reporting and review. While the commerce department has completed its analysis, inter‑agency deliberations continue, with the state department pressing for tougher restrictions focused on whether Chinese companies can ensure the chips will not support China’s military, defence, or intelligence services.
Market signals and alternatives coexist: Jensen Huang has said China could be a $50bn‑a‑year market, but demand is currently suppressed by licence uncertainty. The H200 is advanced but still one generation behind Nvidia’s latest Blackwell platform; Beijing is reportedly cautious and considering allowing only selected tech firms limited purchases, pending detailed rules and the US licence outcome. Chinese firms would also be barred from shipping compliant H200s to overseas data centres, limiting global expansion and making it hard to replace existing offshore third‑party compute arrangements used by companies such as Alibaba and ByteDance, so firms are preparing backup plans; AMD’s MI325X chip under the same December deal is also still awaiting US licences.