投资回报在很大程度上受到这些通膨机制的影响。根据经济学家 Robert Shiller 的数据集，在低通膨年份，美国股市平均每年超越通膨率10%，而国库券则提供了4%的实质年回报。相比之下，在通膨飙升时期，美国股市的实质年增长率低于2%，而国库券按相同标准计算每年实质损失2%。
自2020年4月以来的时期体现了典型的通膨飙升，美国国库券实质年化损失接近9%。然而，在人工智慧相关收益的支撑下，S&P 500 指数避开了历史趋势，实现了14%的平均年实质回报。为了防范此类波动，投资人必须将商品纳入其投资组合中以进行多元化配置，并采取主动的战术性资产配置。
Historically, inflation has operated under two distinct regimes. Since 1915, the UK experienced a low, stable inflation regime two-thirds of the time, with retail prices rising by an average of 2 percent annually. Conversely, during the remaining one-third of the period, inflation averaged 10 percent, driven by global "spikeflation" shocks. These shocks are often triggered by geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions, similar to historical energy crises where Saudi spot oil prices quadrupled after the Yom Kippur War and tripled during the Iranian Revolution.
Investment returns are heavily dictated by these inflation regimes. Based on Robert Shiller's dataset, during low-inflation years, US equities outperformed inflation by an average of 10 percent annually, while Treasury bonds delivered a real return of 4 percent. In contrast, during spikeflation periods, US stocks achieved less than 2 percent in real annual gains, and Treasury bonds suffered a real loss of 2 percent per year.
The period since April 2020 has exemplified spikeflation, with US Treasuries losing nearly 9 percent annually in real terms. However, buoyed by artificial intelligence earnings, the S&P 500 defied historical trends by delivering a 14 percent average annual real return. To hedge against such volatility, investors must diversify their portfolios by incorporating commodities and adopting active tactical asset allocation.