美方允许H200输华以换取25%销售分成，为首次对此等级GPU开放。H200搭载HBM3e，较2022年上线的H100更高阶，性能约为H100的两倍，而先前提供中国的H20仅具H100十分之一训练性能与20%推理能力。H200自2024年起量产，使中国在高阶AI训练上获得重大提升潜力。美方在2024年曾全面禁止HBM对华出口，如今放行含HBM的整卡H200，但独立HBM仍受限。中国科技企业先前大量囤积H20，此次反转将重新塑造供应格局，但仍排除Blackwell与Rubin。

中国政府回应谨慎，市场取决于北京后续立场。美国先前的政策反复—2024年四月禁H20、七月解禁—已使中国企业警惕安全风险认定。Nvidia的中国主要客户包括ByteDance、Alibaba与Tencent；供应链对H200放行普遍乐观，并期待释放库存。但华为Ascend与寒武纪等本土AI晶片加速追赶，使H200难以保证全面重夺市场。

市场反应分化。台湾加权指数微跌0.2%，TSMC下跌0.66%，但Foxconn上涨1.5%。上海证券交易所下跌0.12%，然富士康工业互联飙升近6%，寒武纪上涨0.95%。韩国HBM供应商SK Hynix与Samsung股价分别下跌1.91%与1%。整体行情显示不确定性仍高，尤其因H200虽解禁但出口控制架构未完全松动。

The U.S. decision to permit H200 sales to China in exchange for a 25% revenue share marks the first approval of this GPU class. The H200 features HBM3e and delivers roughly twice the performance of the 2022 H100, while the China-specific H20 offered only one-tenth of H100 training power and 20% of its inference capability. With mass shipment beginning in 2024, China gains significant AI-training capacity. Although the 2024 ban on standalone HBM shipments remains, allowing H200—with HBM onboard—effectively restores access. Earlier stockpiling of H20 by Chinese firms underscores the impact of the reversal, though Blackwell and Rubin remain excluded.

China’s official reaction is cautious, and Beijing’s stance will shape demand. Prior policy swings—banning H20 in April 2024 and reversing in July—fueled Chinese concerns over security claims. Nvidia’s major customers include ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent; supply-chain players view the decision positively and expect to move accumulated H200 inventory. Yet domestic competitors such as Huawei’s Ascend and Cambricon have strengthened, jeopardizing Nvidia’s ability to fully regain market share.

Markets reacted unevenly. The Taiwan Stock Exchange slipped 0.2%, with TSMC down 0.66% and Foxconn up 1.5%. Shanghai’s index fell 0.12%, while Foxconn Industrial Internet jumped nearly 6% and Cambricon rose 0.95%. South Korea’s HBM suppliers SK Hynix and Samsung declined 1.91% and 1%. Overall sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty, given that H200 is approved but core export-control architecture remains intact.