该行的乐观情境预期，中国累计已安装的人形机器人数量到2035年将达到约2400万台，约相当于劳动力的近4%。Barclays表示，仅靠自动化带来的生产率提升，可能只能抵消劳动力短缺的一小部分，但随著北京在Xi Jinping领导下也推动自动化以及科学技术投资以支持增长，机器人经济正在变得更具吸引力。中国出生率已大幅下降，人口已连续第4年下滑，且去年出生人数至少自1949年以来最低。
中国人口约14亿，而适龄劳动人口占总人口比重在2025年已降至约61%，低于10年前的70%以上。目前，15至64岁人口与65岁以上人口的比例约为4:1，预计在2十年内将减半，凸显人口结构转变的严重性。Barclays提醒，其60%的抵消估算应被视为上限，因为这取决于对创新、利用率、折旧和国内吸收相对乐观的假设；不过该行也认为，中国萎缩的劳动力可能为数百万台机器人创造一个巨大市场。
Barclays Plc says China’s deployment of humanoid robots could offset as much as 60% of the country’s projected labor-force decline by 2035, a development the bank argues would help preserve China’s industrial base as its population ages and shrinks. Using demographic forecasts and assuming a 65% participation rate, Barclays estimates the workforce could contract by 37 million over the next decade, a drop large enough to put pressure on manufacturing, which accounts for roughly 25% of China’s economy.
The bank’s optimistic scenario envisions China’s cumulative installed stock of humanoid robots reaching about 24 million units by 2035, equal to almost 4% of the labor force. Barclays says productivity gains from automation alone would likely offset only a small share of the labor shortage, but the economics of robotics are becoming more compelling as Beijing also pushes automation and science-and-technology investment under Xi Jinping to support growth. China’s birthrate has fallen sharply, with the population dropping for a 4th straight year and births last year reaching the lowest level since at least 1949.
China’s population is about 1.4 billion, while the working-age cohort has fallen to about 61% of the total in 2025 from more than 70% a decade earlier. The ratio of working-age people to those over 65 is currently about 4:1 and is projected to halve within 2 decades, underscoring the severity of the demographic shift. Barclays cautions that its 60% offset estimate should be treated as an upper bound because it depends on relatively optimistic assumptions about innovation, utilization, depreciation, and domestic absorption, though it also argues China’s shrinking workforce could create a large market for millions of robots.