2月28日，美国总统与以色列总理下令击杀伊朗86岁的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊，但政权立即由三人执政集团接替，这削弱了“斩首”本身的政治效果。文章认为，战术层面的压倒性成功与战略层面的目标模糊并存，使这场战争呈现出“分裂人格”。
在军事上，美国和以色列已摧毁伊朗海军、压制其空军，并持续破坏其导弹能力与军工体系；与此同时，拦截弹仍在保护以色列和海湾国家的基地与城市，尽管伊朗打击的目标比去年6月冲突时更多。但政治与经济风险正在扩大：伊朗试图封锁霍尔木兹海峡，威胁到约20%的全球石油供应，2月27日以来布伦特原油上涨14%至每桶83美元，欧洲天然气价格升至每兆瓦时54欧元（63美元），比上周高出70%以上，而若油价升至每桶100美元，全球GDP增速可能下降0.4个百分点、通胀上升1.2个百分点。
国内层面的风险同样突出：伊朗9000万人口中约40%属于少数民族，而美国国内如今仅略高于三分之一的人支持这场战争，远低于2001年阿富汗战争开始时90%的支持率。文章因此主张将目标收窄为削弱伊朗军力后尽快停手，因为特朗普若为追求决定性胜利而继续升级，更可能面对地区混乱、经济冲击以及一场因疲惫而收场的不受欢迎战争。
On February 28, America’s president and Israel’s prime minister ordered the killing of Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, yet the regime was immediately replaced by a triumvirate, blunting the political effect of the decapitation. The article argues that overwhelming operational success and strategic vagueness now coexist, giving the war a split personality.
Militarily, America and Israel have destroyed Iran’s navy, grounded its air force, and kept degrading its missile capacity and arms industry; at the same time, interceptors are still shielding bases and cities in Israel and the Gulf even though Iran is striking more targets than in last June’s conflict. But the political and economic risks are widening: Iran has tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, threatening perhaps 20% of global oil supplies, Brent crude has risen 14% since February 27 to $83 a barrel, European gas has climbed to €54 ($63) per megawatt-hour, more than 70% above last week, and if oil hits $100 a barrel, global GDP growth could fall by 0.4 percentage points while inflation rises by 1.2 points.
Domestic risks are equally stark: roughly 40% of Iran’s 90m people are ethnic minorities, while only barely a third of Americans now support the war, versus 90% backing for the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. The article therefore urges a narrower aim of degrading Iran’s military and then stopping quickly, warning that if Trump escalates in search of an undeniable victory, he is more likely to inherit regional chaos, economic damage, and an unpopular war that ends in exhaustion.
Source: Donald Trump must stop soo
Subtitle: His ill-considered conflict risks descending into chaos
Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 07:10 上午