SpaceX 的 Starship 正准备在本周展开第 12 次测试飞行；在即将到来的 mega-IPO 之前，这次任务尤为关键。公司把多项雄心计划都押在 Starship 上：扩大部署 Starlink 卫星、建立月球人类基地、以及推动超过 100 万颗 data center satellites 以支援 AI，最终目标则是把人类送上 Mars。

就载重而言，SpaceX 与 Elon Musk 长期宣称 Starship 可将 100–150 metric tons 送入 low-Earth orbit (LEO)，但公司去年承认，先前的原型机仅约 35 tons，甚至低于 Falcon Heavy，且只比 Falcon 9 略高；作为对照，NASA 的 Space Launch System 可运送 95 metric tons 到 LEO。Musk 表示新版 Version 3 (V3) 采用重新设计的 Raptor 主引擎，理论上可在 fully reusable 模式下把超过 100 tons 送入轨道。

然而，测试纪录显示风险仍高：2023 年 4 月首飞不到 4 分钟即爆炸，2025 年 11 月一枚 booster 又在地面测试台爆炸，V2 也在飞行中出现多次爆炸与故障。为了达成可重复使用，Starship 需保留燃料返航著陆，这会压缩初始发射的 payload；热防护层、flaps 与 fins 也增加重量。若载重偏低，则月球任务所需加油发射次数可能高于 SpaceX 所说的“约 10 次”，甚至接近 NASA 官员提到的“high teens”，而公司已握有超过 40 亿美元的 NASA 登月合约。

SpaceX’s Starship is set for its 12th test flight as soon as this week, and the timing matters because the company’s mega-IPO may be only weeks away, potentially in mid-June, at a valuation that could exceed $2 trillion. Starship underpins SpaceX’s biggest plans: more Starlink satellites, a lunar base, more than 1 million data center satellites for AI, and ultimately a human settlement on Mars.

The core issue is payload performance. Musk and SpaceX have long said Starship could lift 100 to 150 metric tons to low-Earth orbit (LEO), but the prototypes flown so far were said last year to reach only about 35 tons. That is below Falcon Heavy and only slightly above Falcon 9, while NASA’s Space Launch System can carry 95 metric tons to LEO. Musk says Version 3 (V3), with redesigned Raptor engines, should exceed 100 tons to orbit in fully reusable mode.

Still, the test record shows how difficult the goal remains: the April 2023 debut exploded in under 4 minutes, a booster exploded on a test stand in November 2025, and V2 also suffered multiple explosions and flight issues. Reusability forces the rocket to reserve fuel for return and landing, reducing payload, while heat shield, flaps and fins add weight. If payload stays low, the number of refueling launches for a lunar mission could rise above SpaceX’s “roughly 10-ish” claim and approach NASA’s “high teens”; SpaceX already holds more than $4 billion in NASA moon-landing contracts.