GMF（德国马歇尔基金会）报告指出，若北京对台动武且受挫，代价不仅在战场，更会冲击经济、军事、社会稳定与国际关系四大面向，可能反噬习近平「民族复兴」目标；无论是持续数周的有限冲突，或持续数月且以解放军决定性失败收场的重大战争，成本都可能「巨大」并具不稳定性。

经济面上，中国对外部冲击特别敏感：出口约占GDP的20%，为美国占比的两倍；即便只是灰色地带或有限军事行动，也可能立刻引发外溢冲击。报告估计总成本介于2兆到接近10兆美元，并可能引爆「兆美元级危机」；长期则可能加速全球去风险、供应链外移与外资崩落，削弱其投资拉动型成长模式所需的外部动能。

军事面上，重大战争情境假设解放军约10万人伤亡，经数月激战后被迫撤出；台湾约10万总伤亡，其中一半为平民；美日损失为「数千」。即便有限冲突也会削弱中国在南海、印中边境、印度洋海上通道与内部维稳等任务的能力。社会面上，长期或失败战争可能因高伤亡（尤其独生子女家庭）、经济恶化、边疆族群动荡与学生抗议（被数位网路放大）而冲击政权稳定；国际面上可能面临外交驱逐、断交、承认台独、退出或抵制上合、金砖与一带一路等行动，累积效应恐重创影响力与经济连结。

A German Marshall Fund (GMF) study argues deterrence analysis often underweights what China would lose if a Taiwan conflict starts, and especially if it fails. The report assesses four pillars—economy, military, social stability, and international relations—linking them to Xi Jinping’s “national rejuvenation” agenda. It compares a limited conflict lasting weeks with a major war lasting months that ends in a decisive PLA defeat, concluding that costs in both cases would be substantial and potentially destabilizing.

Economically, GMF says China is unusually exposed to external disruption: exports are about 20% of GDP, roughly double the U.S. share, and growth relies heavily on investment and global engagement. Even a limited or gray-zone action could trigger immediate blowback. Estimated costs range from $2 trillion to near $10 trillion, with the risk of a trillion-dollar-scale crisis. Longer-term damage could include accelerated “de-risking,” supply-chain relocation, and a collapse in foreign investment.

Militarily, the major-war scenario assumes about 100,000 PLA casualties and a forced withdrawal after months of fighting. Taiwan is projected to suffer roughly 100,000 total casualties, about half civilians, while U.S. and Japanese losses would be in the thousands. Even limited conflict would degrade China’s ability to enforce South China Sea claims, patrol the Indian border, secure Indian Ocean sea lanes, and maintain internal security. Social instability—casualty sensitivity (including one-child families), economic hardship, ethnic unrest, and digitally amplified dissent—may be Xi’s top concern, alongside international punishments such as expulsions, severed ties, recognition of Taiwan, and withdrawals from China-led groupings.