本文报导了2026年新一轮超级圣婴现象的到来。科学家预测此次圣婴强度极高，发生超级圣婴的机率超过六成。文章回顾了1870年代大饥荒造成五千万人死亡的历史，指出当年圣婴是主要推手之一。如今全球人口是当时的五倍，地球已升温摄氏1.4度，人类是否做好了更充分的准备成为核心问题。哥伦比亚大学气候学教授丁明芳解释了圣婴的基本机制：正常状态下信风将太平洋暖水推向西侧，圣婴期间信风减弱，暖水回流东太平洋，向大气释放大量热能，导致全球平均气温上升约摄氏0.5度，并透过遥相关效应在全球各地引发干旱、洪水和野火等极端天气。
丁教授指出，虽然目前模型尚未确定化石燃料造成的全球暖化是否直接改变了圣婴本身的行为模式，但人为升温叠加圣婴效应无疑加剧了极端天气的严重程度。2023至2024年的强圣婴期间，全球多地同时出现热浪，正是圣婴增温与气候变迁累积升温共同作用的结果。文章强调，每一次圣婴都让人类提前体验未来五到十年持续燃烧化石燃料后的极端气候样貌。印度今年季风延迟、降雨减少，已显示出此次圣婴的早期影响，农业延后种植和限制粮食出口等政策准备至关重要。
文章后半段讨论了气候科学面临的政治压力。川普政府曾提议拆除用于预测圣婴的海洋监测系统，虽被国会阻止，但科研经费削减仍对研究工作构成威胁。丁教授强调气候科学本质上是物理科学而非政治议题，并以掷骰子的比喻说明气候变迁如何增加极端事件的发生机率。极端天气归因科学已日趋成熟，世界天气归因组织的研究显示2026年6月欧洲创纪录热浪在没有人为气候变迁的情况下几乎不可能发生，其发生机率增加了约两百倍。丁教授以吸烟致癌的类比呼吁公众重视统计数据所传达的风险讯号，并改变行为。
This article from Bloomberg reports on the onset of a potentially historic Super El Niño in 2026, with climate models indicating a greater than 60% probability of reaching super strength. Columbia University professor Mingfang Ting explains the fundamental mechanics: during normal conditions, trade winds push warm Pacific surface water westward, but during El Niño these winds weaken, allowing warm water to spread eastward and release massive heat into the atmosphere, raising global average temperatures by roughly 0.5 degrees Celsius. The article draws a sobering comparison to the 1877 El Niño, which triggered the Great Famine killing 50 million people, and asks whether humanity is better prepared now with five times the population and a planet already 1.4 degrees Celsius warmer due to fossil fuel emissions.
Professor Ting notes that while models have not conclusively shown that human-caused warming is altering El Niño's fundamental behavior, the superposition of El Niño warming atop the existing climate change baseline dramatically intensifies extreme weather. The 2023-2024 El Niño, which reached a Niño index of 1.5 degrees Celsius, coincided with unprecedented concurrent heatwaves across multiple continents. Each El Niño effectively provides a preview of what routine climate conditions could look like in five to ten years if fossil fuel consumption continues unabated. India has already experienced delayed monsoon onset and reduced rainfall in 2026, underscoring the need for proactive measures such as adjusted planting schedules and export restrictions on crops during anticipated drought periods. (Key numbers: 2023, 2024)
The article also examines the political pressures facing climate science, including the Trump administration's proposal to dismantle ocean monitoring systems critical for El Niño prediction, which Congress ultimately blocked. Professor Ting emphasizes that climate science is physical science, not politics, and uses the weighted-dice analogy to explain how climate change shifts probabilities toward more extreme outcomes. Extreme weather attribution science has matured significantly, with the World Weather Attribution group demonstrating that the record-breaking June 2026 European heatwave was virtually impossible without human-caused climate change and approximately 200 times less likely under 1970s conditions. Ting compares the risk communication challenge to public health messaging about smoking and cancer, arguing that a 200-fold increase in probability should compel behavioral change just as decisively.