2025年1月20日，DeepSeek仍是杭州一家对冲基金转型的初创公司；一周之内，它因推出性能接近硅谷最前沿、但建设与运行成本更低的模型而走红。经历一年国内激烈竞争后，中国AI企业开始出海。美国因地缘政治限制、全球南方支付能力有限，使欧洲成为主要目标。欧洲担忧并非空穴来风：中国电动车已冲击德法车企，部分欧盟国家试图限制DeepSeek，担心数据外流与关键基础设施依赖对手。
尽管如此，欧洲有三点理由理性接纳中国AI。其一，性能差距很小。谷歌AI负责人称中美模型仅“落后几个月”，对多数应用已足够。其二，成本与开放性。多数中国模型免费或低成本，且为开源或可本地部署，便于微调、避免单一供应商锁定。即便企业倒闭，用户仍可在自有服务器运行训练得到的“权重”，降低数据风险。美国也有开源，但中国走在前列。其三，地缘政治保险。特朗普再度就职一年后，跨大西洋关系不稳，限制美企在欧AI业务的行政令不再不可想象，欧洲反制亦可能发生。
欧洲短期难成模型强国，却可成为应用强国。已有37%的欧盟企业使用生成式AI，与美国持平；制造业更领先。开放模型（包括中国来源）可扩大优势。政策层面，早期禁令尝试多告失败；1月欧委会启动清除阻碍开源模型的行动。风险仍在：欧洲依赖美国硬件，尤其是英伟达芯片；中国软件亦有传统风险。但在当下，更大的风险是将其拒之门外。
On January 20th 2025 DeepSeek was an obscure Hangzhou startup; within a week it became famous after launching a model near Silicon Valley’s cutting edge but far cheaper to build and run. After a year of brutal domestic competition, Chinese AI firms are expanding abroad. With America increasingly off-limits geopolitically and the global south poorer, Europe is the prime target. European fears are real: Chinese EVs already pressure German and French carmakers, and some EU states tried to curb DeepSeek over data and critical-infrastructure risks.
Even so, Europe has three reasons to engage. First, performance gaps are small. Google’s AI chief says Chinese systems trail U.S. leaders by only “months,” sufficient for most uses. Second, cost and openness. Many Chinese models are free or cheap and open enough to fine-tune and run locally, reducing lock-in. If a provider failed, users could keep running trained “weights” on their own servers, easing data-theft worries. U.S. firms also offer open models, but China leads. Third, geopolitical insurance. A year into Trump’s second term, transatlantic uncertainty makes U.S. limits on AI business in Europe thinkable, as are European curbs in response.
Europe may not become a model-building superpower, but it can lead in deployment. Already 37% of EU businesses use generative AI, matching America; in manufacturing Europe is ahead. Open models, including Chinese ones, could extend that lead. Politically, early bans fizzled; in January the European Commission moved to remove barriers to open models. Risks persist—dependence on U.S. hardware, especially Nvidia chips, and familiar concerns with Chinese software—but today the bigger risk is shunning it.