周日的选举结果在缅甸几乎没有悬念：由2021年政变上台的军政府支持的联邦巩固与发展党获得压倒性胜利。前执政党领导层几乎全部入狱或流亡，甚至未被允许参选；在全国大部分由反叛武装控制的地区根本未进行投票。尽管军方允许国际记者观摩，但多国政府谴责该选举不具合法性，其核心功能被视为政治象征而非真实民意表达。

军政府试图借此传递“恢复常态”的信号，背景是自2021年以来的经济急剧下滑。2010年代在有限政治开放下，缅甸经济年增长率一度高达8%，面向约5100万人口吸引中、美、欧企业进入。相比之下，智库Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar估计，2021—2025年外国直接投资总额仅74亿美元，不到此前五年总量的25%。同期通胀率约为年化30%，主要由缅元大幅贬值推动。

现实冲击体现在企业与民生层面。仰光大量项目在政变后停工，仍在运营的外资企业面临频繁停电及员工被征兵风险。普通家庭的实际收入明显缩水：过去依赖单一出租车收入即可维持，如今即使多名家庭成员同时工作仍难以应付飙升的物价。在外交层面，美国缺乏大使与明确政策存在感，而中国公开肯定选举并被视为唯一可能提供大规模投资的外部力量，显示缅甸对单一大国依赖度正在上升。

The outcome of Sunday’s election in Myanmar was effectively predetermined: a landslide victory for the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, installed after the 2021 coup. The former ruling party, with most leaders imprisoned or exiled, was excluded from the ballot, and voting did not occur across large areas controlled by rebel groups. Although international journalists were allowed to observe, many foreign governments condemned the process as illegitimate, framing it as symbolic rather than representative.

The junta hopes the vote signals a return to normalcy despite severe economic deterioration since 2021. During the 2010s, limited political opening delivered annual growth of up to 8% and attracted foreign firms seeking to serve a population of about 51 million. By contrast, the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar estimates foreign direct investment from 2021 to 2025 at $7.4bn, barely 25% of the previous five-year total. Inflation is estimated near 30% per year, driven largely by the collapse of the kyat.

These figures translate into visible strain on businesses and households. Construction projects in Yangon were abandoned after the coup, while remaining foreign firms face daily power cuts and conscription risks. Household purchasing power has eroded sharply: incomes that once sufficed are now inadequate even with multiple earners, as prices surge. Diplomatically, US influence is minimal, with no ambassador and little policy engagement, while China has praised the election and is viewed as the only plausible source of large-scale investment, increasing Myanmar’s reliance on a single external partner.