制裁后俄油跌幅显著大于基准油：乌拉尔在波罗的海与黑海均低于 35 美元/桶，约为 10 月 1 日价格的 60%；太平洋 ESPO 等级较 10 月 1 日下跌 25%，而北海 Dated 仅下跌 10%。四周口径下，出口总值降至每周 9.60 亿美元（较截至 12 月 28 日的期间下降 10%）；单周口径截至 1 月 4 日约 8.35 亿美元（较截至 12 月 28 日下降 11%）。四周均价：乌拉尔（波罗的海）36.69 美元/桶、（黑海）34.82 美元/桶，ESPO 47.55 美元/桶，印度到岸 54.64 美元/桶（期间新低）。
运输端也转弱：截至 1 月 4 日当周，30 艘油轮装载 2146 万桶，低于前一周 32 艘的 2359 万桶；日均出货 307 万桶/日，较前周少约 29 万桶/日，较截至 12 月 21 日当周少 98 万桶/日，为 8 月以来最低。目的地方面，四周内流向亚洲（含未显示终点）为 329 万桶/日（此前为 357 万桶/日）；指向中国 87 万桶/日（此前 101 万），指向印度 60 万桶/日（此前 91 万），而未显示最终目的地达 183 万桶/日（高于指向中印土合计）。土耳其约 10 万桶/日，为 2023 年 4 月以来最低；自 11 月初以来观测到近 40 次「隐蔽」船对船转运。
In late 2025 into early 2026, Russia’s crude exports and prices both slid. The four-week average to Jan. 4 was 3.43 million barrels a day, about 440,000 b/d lower than the four weeks to Dec. 21. A 14th straight weekly price decline, combined with smaller flows, pushed the gross value of shipments to the lowest level since the Feb. 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Price declines in Russian grades outpaced global benchmarks after October US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Urals traded below $35/bbl in both the Baltic and Black Sea—about 60% of its Oct. 1 price—while Pacific ESPO fell 25%; North Sea Dated dropped only 10%. On a four-week basis, export value averaged $960 million a week to Jan. 4 (down 10% vs. the period to Dec. 28); the week to Jan. 4 averaged about $835 million (down 11%).
Operational metrics also weakened. In the week to Jan. 4, 30 tankers loaded 21.46 million barrels versus 23.59 million on 32 ships the prior week; the daily average fell to 3.07 million b/d, down ~290,000 b/d week-on-week and ~980,000 b/d versus the week to Dec. 21, the lowest since August. Four-week flows to Asia (including unknown destinations) slipped to 3.29 million b/d; China fell to 870,000 b/d and India to 600,000 b/d, while 1.83 million b/d had no final destination. About 40 ship-to-ship switches have been observed since early November.
