围绕人工智能的估值已出现与 2000 年代初互联网泡沫及 2008 年金融危机相似的结构性信号。英伟达等 AI 核心企业利润强劲，与当年大量无盈利的互联网公司不同，但其估值受到极端乐观预期推动，表现为多项估值指标创下逾百年新高。根据彭博策略师的数据，由八项估值指标构成的综合平均值达到自有纪录以来最高水平。与此同时，标普 500 的公用事业板块因预期 AI 数据中心的高耗电需求而连续两年录得历史性涨幅，反映资本旋涡已经溢出科技板块本身。
更接近 2008 年危机的风险来自融资结构。大量 AI 基建通过“循环融资”推动：如英伟达既向客户出售芯片，又为其采购提供资金，债务被置于特殊目的投资工具 (SPIV) 中而非进入表内，导致真实杠杆水平不透明。更极端的是估值 5,000 亿美元的 OpenAI 承诺投入 1.4 万亿美元扩建基础设施却从未盈利，并提出希望美国政府为相关贷款提供担保，引发类 Webvan 式风险的担忧。一旦收益不足以覆盖资本与债务成本，相关风险可能反向冲击公开市场。
潜在触发点包括：AI 数据中心可能无法获得足够电力；大规模 AI 取代就业引发民意反弹；电价上升；或中国团队推出新模型使美国技术瞬间贬值。尽管风潮可能继续上行，但市场定价显然忽略了下行场景。鲍里等投资者的警示在社交平台传播，强调当下可能置身另一轮泡沫形成的早期阶段。
AI-related valuations echo early-2000s internet excess and 2008-style structural fragilities. Core AI firms such as Nvidia remain highly profitable—unlike many dot-com-era startups—yet their valuations rely on extreme optimism, with multiple indicators flashing historic highs. A composite average of eight valuation metrics is at its highest level in over a century. Spillover effects have lifted unexpected sectors: S&P 500 utilities are set for one of their strongest two-year gains on record due to projected electricity demand from AI data centers, signaling a capital vortex extending well beyond tech.
The more 2008-like risks lie in financing structures. A significant share of AI infrastructure spending uses “circular financing”: Nvidia both sells chips to customers and funds those purchases, with related debt often housed in special purpose investment vehicles (SPIVs), masking true leverage. The most extreme case is privately held $500 billion OpenAI, which has pledged $1.4 trillion for infrastructure without ever posting a profit and has suggested federal guarantees for AI-related loans—a scenario reminiscent of Webvan-scale imbalance. If revenues cannot cover capital and debt costs, spillback into public markets becomes likely.
Potential shock points include insufficient power for AI data centers, public backlash over electricity prices or job losses from automation, or disruptive advances from China that devalue US models overnight. While upside momentum may continue, markets are pricing almost no downside risk. Burry’s warnings circulate widely, underscoring the possibility that current conditions resemble the opening scenes of a new bubble cycle.