停火释放了即时升级压力，但核心结构性问题仍未解开。霍尔木兹海峡是否真正恢复通行仍存疑；伊朗仅以模糊讯号示意并宣称有艘船通过，Trump 之后又提出用“合资”模式收取过境费。伊朗未接受全面撤除核能力或放弃弹道飞弹的要求，也未接受美方要求其效仿委内瑞拉式政权重整。谈判参照点在两日内也从伊方“10点方案”改为美方“15点方案”，而伊方建议则包括美军撤离区域基地、解冻伊朗资产，显示双方认知差距大。
多位分析人士将此刻形容为 TACO（Trump 以最后时刻退场的策略），意涵是暂时卸压而非可持久解决。外交层面有巴基斯坦斡旋介入，特朗普也与Benjamin Netanyahu 等高层沟通，但美伊公开叙事仍对立。即使是其支持者，亦有共和党人警告其针对民用基础设施威胁不当。评论指出，若伊朗实质掌控霍尔木兹，和解成色将受质疑；在伊朗转而将海峡控制力转化为经济杠杆后，市场将油价下限看在每桶约100美元（约每升0.63美元）附近，且若冲突扩大，价格将可能继续向上。
Donald Trump announced acceptance of a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire after roughly two weeks of strikes since Feb. 28, relieving markets briefly from acute escalation risk. Conflict-time prices had already surged: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose almost 70%, while Brent fell as much as 16% after the truce announcement. In the hour after the first announcement there was also an 11% intraday drop, and the S&P 500 was down 5.2% from its all-time high, marking the worst quarter since 2022. U.S. gasoline briefly moved above 4 dollars per gallon (about 1.06 dollars per litre), a level not seen for years.
The ceasefire eased immediate escalation pressure but did not resolve core strategic knots. Whether the Strait of Hormuz is truly open remains uncertain; Iran gave only limited signals and announced only one ship transit, while Trump later floated a joint-venture toll model. Tehran did not accept demands to end its nuclear program or retire ballistic missiles, and it rejected broad regime-change expectations. Washington’s stated baseline also shifted from a claimed Iranian 10-point basis to a U.S. 15-point blueprint, while Iran reportedly sought U.S. troop withdrawal from regional deployment points and release of frozen Iranian assets, underscoring a wide gap in terms.
Observers described this as a likely TACO, meaning a pressure-driven rollback rather than a durable settlement. A Pakistan-mediated diplomatic track operated in parallel, with top-level contact including Benjamin Netanyahu, yet public narratives in Tehran and Washington stayed far apart. Even allies in Trump’s coalition criticized threats against civilian infrastructure. Skepticism intensified that a ceasefire is hollow if Iran is seen as controlling Hormuz. As Iran appears to convert shipping control into economic leverage, forecasters still saw Brent’s floor near 100 dollars per barrel (about 0.63 dollars per litre) and warned prices could have risen much further—arguably without limit—if the strike campaign had widened.