到目前为止，美伊战争还没有造成那种会让欧洲夏季度假航班停飞的喷射燃料冲击。西北欧与亚洲的批发喷射燃料，从战前每桶约100美元飙到4月初创纪录的逾230美元，之后又下跌30%至约165美元。航空公司已较为镇定：Cathay Pacific 已下调附加费，而 IAG 的 Luis Gallego 表示，British Airways 目前没有看到中断，也不预期夏季供应会出问题。

航线风险并不一致。荷兰—希腊、波兰—葡萄牙，以及奥地利—西班牙看起来都可控，但英国—法国更脆弱，因为英国国内只能满足自身需求的25%，而法国本身也是重要进口国。更大的危险可能在财务面：那些没有提前对冲燃料、却已预售机票的航空公司，可能会被迫亏损飞行，进而引发破产与取消班次，同时把责任推给战争而非商业模式失灵。

供应吃紧，但尚未失控。全球喷射燃料需求仅占石油总需求的7.5%，但它高度依赖波斯湾炼油厂与荷姆兹海峡的流量；去年海湾出口商净出口约400,000桶/日。欧洲的阿姆斯特丹—鹿特丹—安特卫普库存已降至六年低点，但美国已把喷射燃料在炼油产出的占比从10.5%提高到12.7%，每天多产出250,000桶。欧洲4月已用美国与奈及利亚供应替代了约70%的中东供应，为避免短缺到6月可能需提高到80%–90%；同时，航班量目前比去年低0.5%。

US-Iran war has not, so far, produced the kind of jet-fuel shock that would ground European summer holidays. Wholesale jet fuel in northwest Europe and Asia surged from about $100 a barrel before the war to a record above $230 in early April, then fell 30% to roughly $165. Airlines are calmer: Cathay Pacific has cut surcharges, and IAG’s Luis Gallego says British Airways is not seeing interruptions or expected summer supply issues.

Route risk is uneven. Netherlands-Greece, Poland-Portugal, and Austria-Spain look manageable, but UK-France is more exposed because Britain meets only 25% of its needs domestically and France is also a major importer. The bigger danger may be financial: airlines that failed to hedge fuel while pre-selling tickets could fly losses, driving bankruptcies and cancellations, while blaming the war for business-model failures.

Supply is strained but not broken. Global jet fuel demand is only 7.5% of oil use, yet it depends heavily on Persian Gulf refineries and Hormuz flows; Gulf exporters netted about 400,000 barrels per day last year. Europe’s Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp stocks are at a six-year low, but the US has lifted jet fuel’s share of refinery output from 10.5% to 12.7%, adding 250,000 barrels per day. Europe replaced about 70% of Middle East supply in April and may need 80%–90% by June, while flights are running 0.5% below last year.