Covello 提出两种有利于这笔相对价值交易的情境。第一种是 hyperscalers 开始展现正向 ROI，改善市场对其资本支出的疑虑，带动股价回升，而 chip stocks 的上行空间则较有限，因为市场已先行奖励该族群。第二种、且他认为更佳的情境，是 hyperscalers 仍难证明 ROI，迫使其缩减支出，从而引发现金流前景改善的强劲反弹，同时半导体因 hyperscaler capex 下滑而受创。
估值面上，semiconductor manufacturers 已偏昂贵，而 big tech 仍低于历史常态。Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index（SOX）过去一年几乎飙升 150%，其 12 个月 forward P/E 已升至接近 24 倍，高于 10 年平均的 19 倍；hyperscalers 也约为 24 倍，但通常应因稳定现金流与成长前景而享有更高估值。文章并指出，US hyperscalers 的 2026 capex 计划已突破 7,000 亿美元。
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.‘s Jim Covello argues that investors should favor big-spending hyperscalers over chipmakers amid the AI infrastructure buildout. He says the market has already embedded considerable skepticism about hyperscalers’ return on investment (ROI), which is reflected in sharply compressed valuation multiples. By contrast, semiconductors have been the preferred AI trade over the past few months.
Covello outlines two scenarios that could make the relative-value trade work. In the first, hyperscalers begin to show positive ROI, easing concerns about spending and lifting their shares, while chip stocks have less upside because the market has already rewarded them. In the second, which he views as the best case, ROI remains weak and hyperscalers are forced to cut spending, triggering a relief rally on better cash flow prospects while semis fall as lower hyperscaler capex hits their revenue.
Valuation data also supports his view: semiconductor manufacturers are now expensive, while big tech is below historical norms. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX) has risen nearly 150% over the past year, and its 12-month forward P/E has climbed to almost 24, above the 10-year average of 19. Hyperscalers trade at about 24 times forward earnings as well, but they are usually valued higher because of recurring cash flows and growth prospects; US hyperscalers’ 2026 capex plans have topped $700 billion.