Iran 已以沿岸短程弹道飞弹、携弹砲艇与可群袭油轮的高速小艇，实际关闭 Strait of Hormuz；仅此三重威胁，便足以使保险市场基本停止承保。此水道通常承载全球约 20% 至 25% 的石油与天然气流量；虽然部分原油可经由陆上管线外运，但中断仍然重大，而且随时间推移只会恶化。

James Stavridis 认为，美国虽正削弱 Iran 海军力量，且 Pentagon 称已击沉近 20 艘 Iranian 船舰，但这未必足以迅速重开航道。Iran 战前拥有约 12 艘巡防舰与轻型护卫舰、约 24 艘快速攻击与巡逻艇，以及数以百计、甚至数以千计的小型快艇；沿岸飞弹也仍大体可用，因此商船即使有保险，短期内仍不太可能愿意通航。

作者强调，最棘手的风险是水雷。Iran 可能拥有超过 5,000 枚水雷，且可由小艇、柴油潜舰与民用 dhow 秘密布设；单次命中便可能重创油轮。美国在 Gulf 约有 3 至 6 艘扫雷舰，盟友大致也只能再提供相若数量，另可动用 MH-53E Sea Dragon 与 Bahrain 的 Task Force 59 无人系统；但扫雷必须在海上威胁被完全压制后才能展开，而且清除数百枚演习水雷都可能需数周，因此若需持续维持航道，全面清理海峡可能需要约 2 个月。

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz with short-range coastal ballistic missiles, missile-armed gunboats, and fast small craft able to swarm tankers; that three-part threat alone has been enough to make maritime insurance largely stop. The waterway normally carries about 20% to 25% of the world’s oil and gas, and although some crude can leave by land pipelines, the disruption remains substantial and is likely to worsen over time.

James Stavridis argues that current US attacks on Iran’s navy, including the Pentagon’s claim that nearly 20 Iranian vessels have been sunk, may still be insufficient to reopen transit quickly. Iran began the war with about 12 frigates and corvettes, roughly 24 fast attack and patrol boats, and hundreds if not thousands of small speedboats, while many shore-based missiles also remain in play; as a result, merchant shipping is unlikely to risk passage soon even if insurance returns.

The hardest problem, he says, is mining. Iran probably holds more than 5,000 mines and can lay them covertly from small boats, diesel submarines, and civilian dhows; a single strike can badly damage a tanker. The US has around 3 to 6 minesweepers in the Gulf, with allies able to add about the same, plus MH-53E Sea Dragon helicopters and Task Force 59 unmanned systems in Bahrain; but minesweeping can start only after maritime threats are neutralized, and because clearing even a few hundred exercise mines can take weeks, fully clearing the strait could require about two months.