如果4月7日宣布停火后“伊朗大勇行动”结束，这场战争几乎与1991年的“沙漠风暴”持续时长相当，但两次开战决策明显不同：乔治·H·W·布什先获国会与联合国安理会许可，并联合了41个国家，而唐纳德·特朗普最初仅与以色列一道开打且未先行协调。布什设定了明确且有限的目标——逆转一国对另一国的吞并；特朗普则反复变换目标，从打击伊朗导弹与核计划到推动政权更迭。
特朗普的表述与节奏更趋即时化与戏剧化：4月5日至7日之间他发布过“让海峡开放，否则将付出地狱代价”的威胁，全球持续约10.5小时判断其真实性度，随后又转向和解式说法；他却在3月11日宣称“首小时即结束”，实际战争却延续近六周并导致大量伤亡与更高的人道与经济代价。布什是在目标基本达成后才宣布胜利并表扬美军与盟友，而特朗普则反复抢先“先宣布胜利”。
政策结果从单极时刻的战略叙事转向更混合的现实：霍尔木兹海峡仅阶段性部分重开，油价下跌、股市上涨，但伊朗仍可能保留高浓缩铀且仍有征收过境巨额通行费空间。美国民意与政治仍强烈党派化，盖洛普显示仅7%的民主党人、而80%的共和党人对美国全球地位表示满意，博彩市场也显示停火对国会前景影响有限（众议院优势薄弱、参议院为50:50）；经济层面，美国传统智库估算普通家庭每月增加约400美元开支，而特朗普则提出国防预算再增40%，却未同步扩展托幼、医保等国内支出。
If the conflict ended after the two-week ceasefire announced on April 7, Operation Epic Fury would have lasted nearly as long as Operation Desert Storm in 1991, but the launch logic was very different: George H.W. Bush secured congressional and U.N. Security Council approval and built a coalition of 41 countries, while Donald Trump began with just one ally, Israel, without prior coalition consultation. Bush set a clear, limited goal of reversing an act of territorial seizure, whereas Trump repeatedly shifted toward broader targets, from Iran’s missiles and nuclear capacities to regime change.
Trump communicated and escalated in a far more immediate, theatrical way, issuing a hard threat around April 5–7 that kept the world assessing it for about 10.5 hours before he backtracked, then later switched to upbeat messaging; yet he claimed victory on March 11, saying it was over in the first hour, even though fighting lasted nearly six more weeks and caused substantial casualties and broader human and economic costs. Bush waited until objectives were largely achieved before declaring victory and praised the military and allies, while Trump repeatedly pre-declared victory.
The outcome moved from a unipolar-style triumph narrative to a mixed strategic result: Hormuz was only partially reopened, oil prices fell and stocks rose, but Iran appears to retain highly enriched uranium and still potential toll leverage for shipping. Public and political reaction remained strongly partisan, with Gallup showing only 7% of Democrats versus 80% of Republicans satisfied with U.S. global standing, and betting markets indicating little shift in congressional control odds (House margin slender, Senate 50:50); AEI also estimated typical household costs around $400 per month, while the administration proposed a 40% defense budget increase without matching expansion of domestic programs such as childcare, Medicaid, or Medicare.
Source: Donald Trump’s ceasefire shows how America has changed
Subtitle: Contrast it with George Bush senior’s victory in Kuwait
Dateline: 4月 09, 2026 08:06 上午 | Washington, DC