二十一世纪的科技格局一直由“赢家通吃”主导。例如，谷歌垄断了搜索市场，亚马逊控制了电商，而Meta则主导了社交媒介。近期生成式人工智能的崛起引发了新一轮的竞争，OpenAI自2022年底推出ChatGPT以来处于领先地位，但11月18日微软和英伟达宣布支持其竞争对手Anthropic，这一举动以及谷歌的新模型发布，标志着OpenAI主导地位受到威胁。
英伟达和微软承诺向Anthropic投资150亿美元，而Anthropic则将在不定期内斥资300亿美元使用微软Azure云平台，背靠英伟达AI芯片。此前，OpenAI与甲骨文签署五年内投入3000亿美元的算力采购协议，英伟达再投资最多1000亿美元于OpenAI，引发了高达1.4万亿美元支出的承诺，令金融市场对AI相关借贷风险感到担忧。19日，英伟达公布第三季度创纪录销售额，且上调了四季度营收预期，缓解了一些泡沫担忧。
据报道，Anthropic估值已达约3500亿美元，而OpenAI为5000亿美元，Elon Musk旗下XAI也在以2300亿美元估值融资150亿美元。谷歌新发布Gemini 3，月活6.5亿用户，虽不及每周8亿活跃用户的ChatGPT，却因自研芯片具备成本优势。随着竞争加剧，实验室需要通过烧钱维持低价，难以支撑其高昂支出和估值，AI泡沫风险正从公开市场蔓延到私有市场。
The 21st-century tech landscape has been defined by a winner-takes-all mentality. Google monopolized search, Amazon dominates e-commerce, and Meta leads social media. With the boom in generative AI, competition has intensified: OpenAI has led since launching ChatGPT in late 2022, but on November 18th, Microsoft and Nvidia threw their support behind Anthropic, an OpenAI rival, as Google launched a new model, signaling OpenAI’s dominance is under threat.
Nvidia and Microsoft pledged $15 billion to Anthropic, which committed to spending $30 billion on Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform over an unspecified timeframe, powered by Nvidia’s AI chips. Previously, OpenAI’s $300 billion agreement with Oracle for computing power over five years, and Nvidia’s plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, sparked $1.4 trillion in total spending commitments and concerns over excessive AI-related borrowing. On November 19th, Nvidia’s record Q3 sales and raised Q4 revenue forecasts eased some bubble fears.
Reports indicate Anthropic is now valued at around $350 billion, approaching OpenAI’s $500 billion valuation, while Elon Musk’s XAI is seeking $15 billion in funding at a $230 billion valuation. Google’s new Gemini 3 has 650 million monthly active users, still less than ChatGPT’s 800 million weekly users, but its use of Google’s in-house chips could provide major cost advantages. Intensifying competition keeps prices low but increases the risk that AI labs cannot justify their enormous expenditures and sky-high valuations, raising concerns of an AI bubble spreading from public to private markets.