中东多国政府认为美伊紧张局势已出现阶段性降温，此判断基于来自该地区五名接近政府人士的评估。沙特、土耳其、卡塔尔、阿曼和埃及等国持续敦促华盛顿保持克制，警告任何对伊朗的军事打击都可能对邻国产生外溢冲击，并推高全球油价。多方外交接触及美伊之间的间接沟通被认为暂时降低了立即军事冲突的概率。

沟通内容包括伊朗方面向美国保证不会执行示威者死刑，并称实际死亡人数低于外界报道。白宫表示，原定进行的800起处决已被叫停，但仍“密切监控”局势。人权组织称，自12月底爆发抗议以来，伊朗官方承认的死亡人数已升至2,000人。与此同时，美国宣布对18名个人和实体实施新制裁，目标包括被指参与镇压及洗钱石油收入的官员。

军事层面仍高度敏感。卡塔尔乌代德空军基地的警戒级别被下调，部分人员此前从驻有约10,000名美军的地区指挥部撤离后已返回。美国“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航母战斗群正向该地区移动，但五角大楼未予置评。当前美国在该地区的军事资产少于6月水平。特朗普相关表态缓解了市场对供应中断的担忧，全球油价随之回落。

Middle Eastern governments assess that US-Iran tensions have temporarily de-escalated, based on accounts from five people close to regional governments. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt have urged Washington to exercise restraint, warning that any strike on Iran could spill over to neighboring states and raise global oil prices. Sustained diplomatic engagement and indirect US-Iran communication are seen as reducing the immediate likelihood of military confrontation.

The communications reportedly included Iranian assurances that executions of protesters would not proceed and that fatalities were lower than external reports. The White House stated that 800 scheduled executions were halted, while emphasizing continued close monitoring. Human rights groups said protests beginning in late December led to an officially acknowledged death toll of 2,000. At the same time, the US imposed new sanctions on 18 individuals and entities accused of orchestrating the crackdown and laundering oil revenues.

Military signals remain sensitive. Alert levels at Qatar’s Al Udeid air base were lowered, with personnel returning after a partial withdrawal from a command hosting about 10,000 US troops. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group is moving toward the region, though the Pentagon declined comment. US military assets in the region are fewer than in June. Trump’s remarks reduced fears of supply disruption, contributing to a decline in global oil prices.