在2026年，“可负担性”常与“危机”并用，成为民调机构与选举策略师眼中的年度热词；跨大西洋的叙事认为价格失衡，但数据表明这把幽灵担忧与真实问题混在一起。美国商店里一加仑牛奶在2019年1月是3美元、如今是4美元，欧洲食品与能源价格也大涨，然而在大西洋两岸、各收入层级，工资增长快于物价，因此“可负担性危机”在总体上多半是海市蜃楼。

消费结构的数字变化更能解释感受：特朗普出生时，美国家庭消费中60%花在商品上，如今该占比已低于40%，而服务占比上升。服务业不像制造业那样获得巨大生产率提升，所以理发与托育等服务显得顽固地昂贵；在欧元区，由于医疗与房租等服务价格更受管制，问题往往表现为“可获得性”而非“可负担性”，并常以排队来解决。

真实压力更多来自资产跑赢工资：美国的财富与GDP之比接近历史高位，而真实工资虽上升却追不上资产。设想两名薪水相同、都位列收入前10%的人，其中一人10年前继承了100万美元并投入标普500指数，如今会变成400万美元；在购买旧金山景观公寓等“位置性商品”时，这种差距会被体验为可负担性危机。政策上，特朗普提议向纳税人寄出2000美元支票并由关税收入资助，同时美联储在政治压力下被要求降息，这种“对进口加税再发钱购买”的组合更像是在抬高价格，并让1970年代尼克松实行又放弃价格管制的教训被迫重学。

In 2026, “affordability,” often paired with “crisis,” is an early word-of-the-year favorite among pollsters and election strategists; a transatlantic story says prices are out of whack, but the data mix phantom fears with real problems. A gallon of milk in American stores was $3 in January 2019 and is $4 now, and Europe’s food and energy prices have jumped, yet wages are growing faster than prices across income groups on both sides of the Atlantic, so the overall “affordability crisis” is mostly a mirage.

The numbers behind the feeling are structural: when Donald Trump was born, 60% of America’s household consumption went on goods, and now that share is below 40% while services have risen. Services resist the huge productivity gains seen in manufacturing, making haircuts and child care feel persistently expensive; in the euro zone, more regulated prices for health care and rent often turn the issue into availability rather than affordability, frequently “solved” by queuing.

The truer squeeze is assets outrunning wages: America’s wealth-to-GDP ratio is near an all-time high, and real wages have risen but not as fast as assets. Picture two people with identical salaries in the top 10% of earners, but one inherited $1m ten years ago and would have $4m today if it sat in the S&P 500; that gap feels like crisis when bidding for positional goods like a San Francisco view apartment. Policy risks add fuel: Trump proposes $2,000 cheques funded by tariffs, the Fed faces pressure to cut rates, and the “tax imports then hand out cash” mix recalls the 1970s lesson of Nixon’s price controls that were imposed and then abandoned.

Source: The truth about affordability

Subtitle: Voters in rich countries are angry about prices. Politicians could make things worse

Dateline: 12月 30, 2025 06:36 上午