区域与个股回报同样凸显趋势：Bloom Energy 飙升328%，中国的 Sungrow 上涨137%，欧洲的 Siemens Energy 涨幅超过一倍；这些都远高于英伟达约30%的涨幅。与此同时，油价下跌14%，在美国增产推动下供给偏松，OPEC 也转而预测季度市场将出现盈余而非短缺。BloombergNEF 预测，AI 训练与服务带来的用电需求将在十年内增至四倍，使资料中心成为全球用电成长最快的用户之一。
资金面亦反映乐观：2025年上半年再生能源专案投资达到创纪录的3,860亿美元，较去年同期增加10%；但美国投资较2024年下半年下滑36%，欧盟则大增逾60%。大型交易包括 Apollo 投入65亿美元于英国离岸风电、EDP 规划至2030年前在亚洲投资最高20亿美元，以及微软自2026年起在美欧取得超过10.5吉瓦的绿电容量。不过该指数自11月触及逾两年高点后回落7.6%，仍较2007年高点低约73%，估值约为预期盈余20倍，低于五年均值23倍。
Despite expectations that President Trump’s Big Oil agenda would make 2025 a weak year for green stocks, the sector has surged as AI drives broad energy demand. The S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index is up 44% year to date, beating the S&P 500’s 16% rise and the S&P Global Oil Index’s 11% gain, signaling a sharp reversal in relative performance.
Regional and single-stock returns reinforce the trend: Bloom Energy has jumped 328%, China’s Sungrow is up 137%, and Europe’s Siemens Energy has more than doubled, far ahead of Nvidia’s roughly 30% gain. Meanwhile oil is down 14% amid looser supply, and OPEC now expects a quarterly surplus rather than a deficit. BloombergNEF forecasts electricity demand from AI training and services will quadruple within a decade, making data centers one of the world’s fastest-growing power users.
Capital flows match the optimism: renewable projects drew a record $386 billion in the first half of 2025, up 10% from a year earlier; US investment fell 36% versus the second half of 2024, while EU investment rose over 60%. Deals include Apollo’s $6.5 billion UK offshore wind investment, EDP’s plan to invest up to $2 billion in Asia by 2030, and Microsoft securing more than 10.5 GW starting in 2026. Caution remains as the index is down 7.6% since its November peak, yet it is still about 73% below its 2007 high and trades near 20x forward earnings versus a five-year average of 23x.
