同一会议上，联准会表示明年将重启购债，从下个月开始每月买入400亿美元公债，在大致连续缩表四年、仅于2023年短暂中断之后再度扩表。批评者认为，重新扩大资产负债表会让货币政策与财政需求更加捆绑，特别是在凯文·哈西特被视为下任主席、对央行独立性的疑虑升高之际。市场则欢迎这一立场：10年期与2年期美债利差回升至60个基点以上，银行股指数创新高，白银价格突破每盎司60美元，今年以来累计上涨106%。
在全球层面，国际金融协会估计，第三季主权债务单季飙升8兆美元，季增超过8%，使各部门合计的全球债务创下346兆美元新高，其增量近三分之一来自美国与中国。美国融资压力依旧沉重，2026财年前两个月赤字就达4390亿美元，同时企业债规模逼近100兆美元，与人工智慧相关的发债增长最快。新兴市场创纪录发行以美元计价的欧元债，而投资人因甲骨文以加杠杆方式投入AI资本支出而惩罚其股价，显示市场对加债容忍度有限。
The Fed cut the funds rate to 3.75% from 4.0%, the lowest since October 2022, with only two dissents despite rumors of as many as five. Dot-plot projections barely moved: no member sees rates above 4% for years, and clear majorities keep them between 3% and 4%, with only minorities penciling in a 2026 hike or no cuts over three years. Inflation forecasts edged down, and the committee still expects to hit the 2% target by 2028, aligning with cooling inflation-swap pricing.
At the same meeting, the Fed said it will restart bond purchases next year, beginning with $40 billion next month, after roughly four years of balance-sheet shrinkage apart from a brief 2023 interruption. Critics see renewed expansion as tying monetary policy more closely to fiscal needs, especially with Kevin Hassett expected as the next chair and concern about central-bank independence rising. Markets welcomed the stance: the 10s–2s Treasury spread climbed back above 60 bps, bank shares hit records, and silver topped $60 an ounce, up 106% year-to-date.
Globally, the Institute of International Finance estimates sovereign debt jumped $8 trillion in the third quarter alone, more than 8% in a single quarter, taking total global debt across sectors to a record $346 trillion, with the US and China contributing nearly one-third of the increase. US borrowing remains heavy, with a $439 billion deficit in just the first two months of fiscal 2026, while corporate debt nears $100 trillion and AI-related issuance surges. Emerging markets are issuing record dollar eurobonds, and investors punished Oracle for funding AI capex with more debt, signaling limits to markets’ tolerance.
