欧洲再次面临其工业「基础积木」的战略性脆弱，但这次来自经济因素而非正面战场封锁。伊朗战争与霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻扰乱了石油与天然气市场，使欧洲生产乙烯、丙烯等基础化学品逐渐缺乏竞争力。这些化学品是塑胶的上游原料，氨又支撑肥料及工业链，能源与原料成本上升正传导到食品、药品、汽车与建材等终端产品。文章指出，欧盟长期依赖进口能源与资源；俄乌战争已暴露风险，伊朗冲突则将其放大，让本土化学产业与下游制造业面临连锁脆弱性。
根据 Cefic，欧盟化学产业2024年的销售额为6350亿欧元。德国最大的氨生产企业 SKW（位于Wittenberg）在2022年天然气价格飙升后，曾暂停生产关键氨，因其生产变得无法获利。自此以来，成本转嫁与供应断裂扩大：BASF 将清洁剂价格上调约30%，Evonik 也提高用于牛鸡饲料的化合物价格。Cefic估计，2022年至2025年间欧洲约有9%的化学生产能力关停，且近两年加速。SKW在2025年支付排放凭证4,000万欧元，且未来仍会增加。当天然气上涨时，化工企业通常只能选择涨价或停产，整个生产线因此可能在危机中瞬间中断。
欧洲天然气与液化天然气价格常为美国的2到3倍，且部分竞争对手未承担类似碳成本，能效竞争更为吃紧。中国在快速扩张产能，促成全球供给过剩并压缩欧洲利润。欧盟去年启动的 Critical Chemicals Alliance 虽试图盘点关键化学品与设施，但对是否将氨、乙烯等列为战略品及援助机制仍有争议。德国主张先改善能源成本与减少行政负担，其他成员国较倾向补贴豁免或贸易措施。若政策与投资仍慢，对抗中东和中国竞争者的能力将下降，整个工业链有可能失速，并加深对进口的依赖。
Europe again faces strategic vulnerability in its industrial building blocks, but this time from economics rather than a direct military blockade. The Iran war and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have disturbed oil and gas markets, making production of basic chemicals such as ethylene and propylene increasingly uncompetitive in Europe. These chemicals are upstream inputs for plastics, while ammonia underpins fertilizer and broader industrial chains, so higher energy and feedstock costs are flowing into food, pharmaceuticals, autos, and construction. The article says Europe has long relied on imported energy and resources; the Russia-Ukraine war exposed this risk, and the Iran conflict has amplified it, increasing exposure of domestic chemicals and downstream industries to cascading fragility.
Cefic reports EU chemical sales reached 635 billion euros in 2024. Germany’s largest ammonia producer SKW in Wittenberg temporarily shut in 2022 after gas prices rose and made ammonia production uneconomic. Since then, cost pass-through and supply disruptions have spread: BASF raised detergent prices by about 30%, while Evonik also raised prices for compounds used in cattle and chicken feed. Cefic estimates around 9% of Europe’s chemical capacity was shut between 2022 and 2025, with shutdowns accelerating in the last two years. SKW paid 40 million euros for emissions certificates in 2025, with expected increases ahead. When gas prices spike, chemical producers usually can only raise prices or shut plants, and any disruption at this level can stop entire production lines during a crisis.
In Europe, LNG energy can be two to three times more expensive than in the U.S., and competitors often avoid similar carbon costs, worsening price pressure. China’s rapid capacity buildout adds to global oversupply and squeezes margins. The EU’s Critical Chemicals Alliance launched last year tries to map critical chemicals and sites, but political disagreement persists over whether to classify substances such as ammonia and ethylene as strategic and how to support them. Germany argues for better framework conditions first, such as lower energy costs and less regulation, while others prefer targeted subsidies or trade tools. If policy and investment remain slow, competitiveness against producers in the Middle East and China could weaken; vulnerabilities could then spread through the wider economy and deepen import dependence. (Key numbers: 2, 3)