AI 同时冲击咨询业的三大基础：通才模式、按工时计费与金字塔式用工结构。许多原本由初级顾问完成的研究、摘要和 PowerPoint 工作可被 AI 取代，客户也越来越先用 AI 做初步诊断，再找专家深挖。McKinsey 已花 2 年多重塑合伙人薪酬体系，约三分之一业务改为绩效收费；Accenture 自 2021 年底高点以来股价跌逾 50%，市值从逾 $260bn 降至约 $108bn，显示市场已在重估这一行业。
大型公司并非毫无反击能力：它们拥有数十万员工、全球网络与数十亿美元 AI 投资，并通过联盟、内部项目和更快的产品开发来应对。KPMG 的 Project Watts 让原本需数月的工具缩短到数周；BCG 称其 40% 收入来自 AI 与科技业务。但短期风险可能最大的是中型公司，因为它们既缺乏 Big Four 的资本，也不如精品公司灵活；若创办人卖身退出，行业最终仍可能被并购整合。
AI is eroding the scale advantage of the consulting giants. The article uses Mark Bunker’s departure from Deloitte to found Queen’s Tower Advisory as an example: after discussing the idea with an old friend from Imperial College London, he recruited a former EY partner as chair and plans to use AI agents to augment human teams. The Management Consultancy Association (MCA) estimates smaller firms are growing by as much as 50% with AI, while Europe’s largest private capital group has put in more than €500mn to expand WTS and aims to hire 100 partners within five years to compete directly with the Big Four.
AI is also attacking three pillars of the business model: generalist staffing, billable hours, and the pyramid structure. Work in research, data summarisation, and PowerPoint production is highly automatable, and clients increasingly use AI for an initial diagnosis before seeking deeper expertise. McKinsey has spent more than two years redesigning partner pay, with about one-third of its work now tied to performance fees; meanwhile Accenture’s share price has fallen more than 50% from its late-2021 peak, cutting market value from more than $260bn to about $108bn, signaling a market reappraisal.
Large firms still have defenses: scale, global networks, and billions invested in AI. They are responding with alliances, internal acceleration projects, and faster development cycles; KPMG’s Project Watts reduced tool-building time from months to weeks, and BCG says 40% of revenue comes from AI- and tech-focused work. But the short-term danger may be greatest for mid-tier firms, which lack both the capital of the Big Four and boutique agility. If founders eventually sell out, the disruption could still end in consolidation rather than a full overthrow.