证据重点在于高价值战区的冲突下行风险，以及与盟友之间的政策摩擦。据估计，台湾战争将使全球付出超过 $10 trillion 的代价，而南海航道每年承载约 $4 trillion 贸易，显示对中断的曝险非常巨大。文中也指出 Trump 胁迫策略的执行落差：已宣布的关税目前仅约 1 quarter（约 25%）真正生效；同时，对 Japan、South Korea、India、Taiwan 等伙伴反复施压，即使部分撤回，仍会提高不确定性。
其影响被描述为不对称的成本效益结果：在 Greenland、Venezuela、Cuba 等地可能获得的收益相对较小或不确定；但若亚洲威慑减弱或欧洲安全破裂，潜在损失可能是灾难性的。在能源市场上，Bloomberg Economics 模拟的极端 Iran 情境可能把油价推升至每桶 $100 以上，除直接军事成本外，还会增加通膨与成长风险。其他规模指标也强化这种失配，包括 Venezuela 约 $100 billion 的 GDP，以及对联盟信任反复受冲击可能加速 US 伙伴避险行为的担忧，进而提高多极化分裂并削弱 US 长期杠杆。
The article argues that US strategy under Donald Trump is concentrating military and political pressure in the Western Hemisphere and Middle East while underweighting Asia, where the largest economic upside sits. Bloomberg Economics projects Asia’s GDP rising from $38 trillion in 2025 to $55 trillion in 2035, versus Europe at $37 trillion, the Americas excluding the US at $11.5 trillion, and the Middle East plus Africa at $9.5 trillion by 2035. On that trajectory, Asia’s 2035 economy is about 4.8:1 relative to the non-US Americas and about 5.8:1 relative to the Middle East and Africa, framing the core claim that strategic attention is misallocated.
The evidence centers on downside risk from conflict in higher-value theaters and policy frictions with allies. A Taiwan war is estimated to cost more than $10 trillion globally, and South China Sea shipping lanes handle about $4 trillion in trade each year, indicating very large exposure to disruption. The piece also highlights execution gaps in Trump’s coercive tactics, noting only about 1 quarter (roughly 25%) of announced tariffs are currently in force, while repeated threats toward partners such as Japan, South Korea, India, and Taiwan increase uncertainty even when partially rolled back.
Implications are presented as asymmetric cost-benefit outcomes: relatively small or uncertain gains in places like Greenland, Venezuela, and Cuba versus potentially catastrophic losses if deterrence weakens in Asia or European security fractures. In energy markets, Bloomberg Economics models an extreme Iran scenario that could push oil above $100 per barrel, adding inflation and growth risks beyond direct military costs. Additional scale markers reinforce the mismatch, including Venezuela’s roughly $100 billion GDP and concern that repeated shocks to alliance trust may accelerate hedging behavior by US partners, increasing multipolar fragmentation and reducing long-run US leverage.