预报员警告称，强烈 El Niño 事件的机率正在上升，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration）与欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）的新展望都显示，未来几个月内可能出现一场「超级 El Niño」，并持续到 2026 年底。这项警告于 2026 年 5 月 6 日公布，正值外界担心这种气候型态可能会在全球本已偏高的极端天气风险之上再添压力之际。
El Niño 的定义是太平洋部分海域的海表温度高于往常，而它常常会推升全球气温，同时对远超出该地区的天气型态造成影响。文章指出，这类事件往往会放大人为造成的暖化，使高于正常的天气条件出现机率增加；文章并引述最新的欧洲预报称，赤道中部太平洋海表温度在秋季前可能高出平均值多达 3 摄氏度，或 5.4 华氏度。
如果这些预报被证实，这次事件可能会跻身有记录以来最强的 El Niños 之一，并在 2026 年加剧人们对飓风、干旱及其他气候极端事件的担忧。主要的不确定性不在于 El Niño 是否会影响天气，而在于它会变得多强、持续多久；文章强调的是机率正在上升，而不是已经保证会出现超级事件，较广泛的含意则是，自然增暖叠加在人类持续推动的气候变化之上的程度将更强。
Forecasters are warning that the odds of a powerful El Niño event are rising, with new outlooks from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggesting that a possible "super El Niño" could emerge in the coming months and last through the end of 2026. The warning, published on May 6, 2026, comes amid concerns that the climate pattern could add to already elevated risks of extreme weather around the world.
El Niño is defined by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean, and it often pushes global temperatures higher while affecting weather patterns far beyond the region. The article notes that these events tend to amplify human-caused warming, increasing the odds of hotter-than-normal conditions, and it cites the latest European forecast showing central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures could reach as much as 3 degrees Celsius, or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, above average by fall.
If those forecasts verify, the event could rank among the strongest El Niños ever recorded and heighten worries about hurricanes, drought, and other climate extremes during 2026. The main uncertainty is not whether El Niño would influence weather, but how intense and persistent it becomes; the article emphasizes that the probability is increasing, not that a super event is guaranteed, and the broader implication is a stronger overlay of natural warming on top of ongoing climate change driven by humans.