更关键的，是在行动当日前几个月即形成的高精度靶点认证链。文中称以色列方面预判86岁的Ali Khamenei将在周六上午按时到办公室并会见多名高级官员；同时以军内规要求两名资深情报官必须独立高置信度确认其身份与位置，且另有美国提供的CIA人类来源。若行动发生在全面开战后的阶段，伊朗会更快转入防护（包括进入地堡），而Khamenei当日却“未入地堡”，从而形成窗口。约在周五美东时间15:38，美国总统Donald Trump在飞往德州的Air Force One上下令启动Operation Epic Fury，随后美军进行网络打击“瘫痪/削弱/致盲”伊朗感知通信体系，之后以色列战机连续飞行并对其复合体发射多达30枚精确弹药。
但多位现任与前任以色列情报官员强调，这既非纯技术动作也是明确政治决策。文章回顾更广阔脉络：12天战争（2025年6月）即在“分钟级”内炸杀十余名核科学家与高级军官，并以远距导弹（可从1,000公里外打击餐桌尺寸目标）压制防空；此前约20年后才从“不会刺杀国家元首”的传统边界突破——包括2001年Ariel Sharon指令Israel优先对伊朗（据称给Meir Dagan）以及2023年10月7日事件后对高层目标“开闸”。文章还列举持续执行：2024年在德黑兰击毙Ismail Haniyeh、耗资约300mn美元的多年项目用于给数千部Hizbollah寻呼机与电台植入装置；同时伊朗方面亦有反制，如2022年泄露Mossad高层家庭通信数据、2025年在耶路撒冷黑入CCTV。
Despite uncertainty around some operational details, this was presented as a long-term, multi-domain intelligence architecture rather than a single tactical spike. The core method was described as data fusion: hacked cameras, telecom monitoring, daily military summaries, and social network analysis of billions of records to infer unusual decision nodes. By Israel’s own doctrine, targeting intelligence is not an end in itself but a prerequisite for strategy; once a kill decision is made, agencies prioritize getting actionable certainty. (Key numbers: 8200)
The operation reportedly became time-sensitive because once active hostilities began, Tehran’s leadership would likely disperse or move underground. Israeli and U.S. analysts identified a precise Saturday morning window when Ali Khamenei was not in either of his two bunkers, and confirmed senior officials arriving for a meeting while having breakfast. In daylight, Israeli jets delivered up to 30 precision munitions after hours of positioning, with U.S. cyber support clearing the electromagnetic environment. The strike followed broader campaign patterns: in a 12-day conflict in June 2025, more than a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists and generals were killed in minutes after air-defence degradation, using drones and stand-off munitions; a notable tactic continuity.
Strategically, the piece frames the hit as heavily debated even inside Israel: Israel has assassinated hundreds globally, yet whether killing a figure as central as Ali Khamenei yields durable gains remains contested. It also notes a 20-year institutional arc—from Ariel Sharon’s 2001 directive to prioritize Iran through the post-2023 shift that removed political red lines on killing foreign leaders—and cites a $300mn multiyear covert operation against thousands of Hizbollah communication devices and the 2024 Tehran assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. Iranian counterintelligence has also remained capable, including high-profile cyber retaliation such as leaking data tied to the Mossad chief’s household phone and monitoring in wartime Jerusalem, showing a continuous, escalatory intelligence contest rather than a one-off “breakthrough.”